中央经济工作会议点评:对增收与物价关注的再确认
Orient Securities·2024-12-13 06:10

Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2024, set the tone for macroeconomic policies in 2025, emphasizing employment, income, and prices[7] - The meeting identified current challenges as insufficient domestic demand, operational difficulties for some enterprises, and pressure on employment and income, with a heightened focus on these issues compared to the previous year[7] Policy Measures - The conference proposed five key areas for coordination, including effective markets and proactive government, total supply and demand, and enhancing quality while expanding total volume, indicating a shift towards macro-level growth strategies[7] - Fiscal measures will be intensified, with plans to increase the fiscal deficit ratio and issue long-term special bonds, signaling a proactive approach to fiscal policy[7] Monetary Policy - The meeting reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with indications of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to boost market confidence[7] - The central bank aims to expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, suggesting more innovative financial tools may be introduced in 2025[7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Emphasis on expanding domestic demand through improved social security, such as increasing basic pensions and healthcare subsidies, and promoting diverse consumption scenarios[7] - The conference addressed the need to mitigate "involution" in competition, aiming to regulate local government and enterprise behaviors to improve industry order and resource allocation[7] External Trade and Investment - The meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing foreign investment and trade, with a commitment to increasing openness despite global geopolitical risks[7] - A focus on establishing mechanisms that enhance proactive engagement and address core concerns of residents was emphasized, aiming for timely and effective responses to social issues[7]