2024年12月中央经济工作会议要点解读

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3.0% in 2024 to around 4.0% in 2025[2] - The scale of new local special bonds is projected to expand from 3.9 trillion to approximately 7 trillion yuan, including 2.8 trillion for debt resolution[2] - The issuance of special long-term bonds is anticipated to rise from 1 trillion to between 1.5 trillion and 2 trillion yuan[3] Monetary Policy - A policy interest rate cut of up to 0.5 percentage points is expected in 2025, higher than the 0.3 percentage points cut in 2024[3] - The growth of social financing and money supply is projected to align with economic growth and price level expectations[3] - Significant support for consumer credit is anticipated, with potential targeted tools to lower financing costs for residents[7] Real Estate Policy - The focus will be on stabilizing the real estate market, with measures including lowering mortgage rates and increasing credit for real estate companies[4] - The actual mortgage rates, adjusted for price factors, are expected to decrease further[4] - The real estate investment decline is projected to narrow to around 6.0% in 2025[9] Consumption and Investment - The growth rate of retail sales is expected to accelerate from approximately 3.8% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025, with final consumption contributing 70%-80% to economic growth[7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be around 4.0%, with infrastructure investment supported by an estimated 3 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds[8] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a growth rate of about 7.0%[9] External Trade - Measures to stabilize foreign trade will include expanding export credit insurance and enhancing cross-border e-commerce initiatives[11] - The macroeconomic policy aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to counterbalance external trade shocks, maintaining GDP growth between 4.5% and 5.0%[12]