GOLDWIND(002202) Tai Ping Yang·2024-12-13 06:54Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Goldwind Technology (002202) [4]. Core Views - Goldwind Technology has a long history and has successfully navigated multiple industry cycles, demonstrating its ability to maintain profitability even during downturns [19][23]. - The company has diversified its revenue streams, expanding from wind turbine manufacturing to wind farm investment and development, as well as wind power services [19][23]. - The domestic wind turbine market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with leading companies expected to benefit more from this trend [19][23]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with external orders amounting to 41.38GW as of Q3 2024, supporting its market share growth [19][23]. Summary by Sections Company History and Performance - Goldwind Technology was established in 1998 and has undergone several transformations, with a clear ownership structure and significant state-owned shares [19]. - The company has shown a recovery in performance, with revenue from wind turbine sales at 329.37 billion yuan, accounting for 65.28% of total revenue in 2023 [19][23]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 202.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.32% [23]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic wind turbine bidding scale reached a historical high in 2024, with a total of 127.00GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.14% [36]. - The report anticipates that domestic wind power installations will continue to grow rapidly, with an expected new installation of 87.46GW in 2024 [50]. Global Market Trends - Globally, wind power installations are projected to grow significantly, with an expected increase from 117GW in 2023 to 178GW by 2028, representing a CAGR of 9% [55]. - The offshore wind sector is expected to see substantial growth, with new installations projected to rise from 11GW in 2023 to 33GW by 2028, indicating a CAGR of 25% [55]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 606.03 billion yuan, 714.13 billion yuan, and 773.47 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 20.11%, 17.84%, and 8.31% [4][5]. - Net profits are projected to reach 27.35 billion yuan, 32.77 billion yuan, and 43.05 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 105.45%, 19.83%, and 31.37% [4][5].