医药生物行业周报（24年第50周）：医保谈判结果公布，支付端多方面支持创新

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The release of the new National Medical Insurance Drug List includes 91 new drugs, with 89 successfully negotiated or bid for inclusion, indicating a stable trend in price reductions and negotiation success rates compared to previous years [2][16]. - The proportion of innovative drugs in hospital drug revenues is expected to rise from 10% to 30%, driven by supportive policies for domestic innovative drugs and their increasing clinical cost-effectiveness [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a diversified payment system, which is expected to enhance purchasing power for innovative drugs and medical devices, benefiting the sector [2][50]. Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Negotiation Results - The new drug list will be implemented nationwide on January 1, 2025, with a total of 3,159 drugs now included in the National Medical Insurance Drug List [16]. - The negotiation success rate for the 117 drugs outside the list was 76%, with a total of 8.3 billion people benefiting from negotiated drugs, resulting in over 880 billion yuan in patient cost reductions [16][18]. Key Companies and Their Performance - Mindray Medical (300760.SZ): Outperform rating, market cap of 318.6 billion yuan, projected net profit growth from 115.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 176.4 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. - WuXi AppTec (603259.SH): Outperform rating, market cap of 157.6 billion yuan, projected net profit growth from 106.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 122.8 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. - United Imaging Healthcare (688271.SH): Outperform rating, market cap of 115.5 billion yuan, projected net profit growth from 19.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 28.1 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. - Innovent Biologics (688277.SH): Outperform rating, market cap of 540 billion yuan, with a projected recovery from a net loss of 3.3 billion yuan in 2024 to a profit of 14 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests prioritizing investments in innovative drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services, while also considering opportunities in AI healthcare and mergers and acquisitions [2][49]. - The demand for healthcare is expected to continue growing, with total health expenditure in China increasing from 65,196 billion yuan in 2019 to 90,578 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 8.6% [2][49]. Recommended Stocks - Mindray Medical: Strong R&D and sales capabilities, benefiting from domestic medical infrastructure upgrades [2][53]. - WuXi AppTec: Comprehensive service capabilities in new drug development, poised to benefit from the global outsourcing market [2][53]. - United Imaging Healthcare: Focused on high-performance medical imaging equipment, expected to achieve steady growth [2][53].