食品饮料行业2025年度投资策略：大众品需求改善在途，品牌共识强化，优质供给定价权增强

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry faced a weak recovery in 2024, with a 4.9% decline in the sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.5 percentage points. The valuation compression was a significant constraint [16][19]. - In 2025, the industry is expected to see a recovery in demand driven by macroeconomic policies, with a focus on improving consumer sentiment and spending [35][44]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards quality over price, indicating that companies will need to enhance product quality to capture market share [36][44]. Summary by Sections Review of 2024 - The food and beverage sector's performance was hindered by weak consumer confidence and spending, leading to a 4.9% decline year-to-date [16][19]. - The sector's valuation decreased by 17.8%, despite an 8.4% growth in earnings, indicating a significant market expectation adjustment [16][19]. - Consumer behavior showed a trend towards rational spending, with a notable decline in premium product purchases, particularly in categories like high-end liquor [24][28]. Outlook for 2025 - Economic policies are expected to stimulate demand recovery, particularly in the B-end channels, with low inventory levels in sectors like the restaurant supply chain and beer likely to rebound first [35][36]. - Demographic changes and government policies aimed at increasing birth rates are anticipated to benefit related sectors, such as infant formula [36]. - The retail landscape is evolving, with a shift towards brand recognition and quality, impacting competition dynamics in lower-brand industries [37][44]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors likely to benefit from policy support and demand recovery, recommending companies like Haidilao, Tianwei Foods, Qingdao Beer, and China Resources Beer [44]. - It emphasizes selecting high-growth sectors, particularly in beverages, where competition dynamics are improving, such as in the sugar-free tea and packaged water markets [44]. - The report also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, recommending leading brands like Wuliangye and Moutai [45]. - Companies with reform expectations, such as Zhongju Gaoxin and Yanghe Brewery, are also recommended for investment consideration [45].