研究院专题报告：全方位扩内需应对大国竞争

Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase from 3% in 2023 to around 4% in 2024[3] - Special long-term government bonds are projected to rise from 1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with 1 trillion yuan allocated for state-owned bank capital replenishment and 2 trillion yuan for major projects and social welfare[3] - The new local government special bond quota for 2024 is set at 4 trillion yuan, with an additional 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan expected in 2025[3] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate expected to decrease by approximately 40 basis points from the current 1.5%[4][5] - The aim is to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price stability targets[4] Domestic Demand and Consumption - There is a strong emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and investment efficiency to counteract external demand shocks, particularly from tariff adjustments by other countries[6] - Policies to support consumption, including expanding the scope and amount of trade-in programs, are expected to continue[6] Real Estate Market - Efforts to stabilize the real estate market are crucial, with a focus on urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, potentially expanding the target of 1 million new units announced earlier[8][9] - The government aims to control new real estate land supply while revitalizing existing land and commercial properties[9] Technological Innovation - The strategy emphasizes leveraging technological innovation to develop a modern industrial system, particularly in high-tech sectors like artificial intelligence, which is seen as pivotal for future competitiveness[7] - The report highlights the importance of the stock market as a channel for financing high-tech enterprises and enhancing consumer confidence[7]