1212中央经济工作会议点评：从政策导向看2025年A股投资机会

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference held on December 11, 2024, acknowledged the internal and external challenges facing the economy and proposed measures such as dual monetary and fiscal easing to boost consumption[1] - The expected fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds projected at CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds estimated at CNY 2 trillion[1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years, with explicit mentions of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[1] - In 2024, two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 100 basis points and two OMO rate cuts of 40 basis points are anticipated, along with two MLF rate cuts of 60 basis points[1] Stock Market Stability - The conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock market and proposed innovative financial tools to facilitate long-term capital inflow[1] - The central bank has already introduced swap facilities and repo buyback loans to stabilize the stock market, with expectations for a more substantial stabilization fund in 2025[1] Investment Opportunities - The focus on expanding domestic demand highlights new opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly in 3C electronics and scenario-driven consumption[2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to drive high-quality development and create significant investment opportunities in technology sectors[2] Industry Reforms - The conference indicated a commitment to reform state-owned enterprises and promote private sector growth, which may yield short-term investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises[2] - The emphasis on addressing "involution" in overcapacity industries suggests potential rebounds in sectors like photovoltaics[2]