2025年度展望（八）：货币政策：如何兑现“适度宽松”？

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025 - The monetary policy is expected to shift to "moderate easing" in 2025, focusing on three main areas: maintaining reasonable liquidity, reducing financing costs, and enhancing interest rate policy execution[1] - It is anticipated that there will be 2-3 instances of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in 2025, with a total reduction of 100-150 basis points, injecting approximately 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan of base currency into the economy[3] - The policy interest rates are expected to decrease by 30-40 basis points, with the LPR pricing mechanism reform providing additional downward pressure on loan rates[4] Group 2: Changes in Financing Demand - Since 2016, the monetary policy framework has shifted from quantity-based to price-based due to changes in financing supply and demand dynamics, indicating that the main constraint on financing growth is now demand rather than supply[2] - The ratio of direct financing to indirect financing has been declining, with a 6.08% year-on-year decrease as of October 2024, reflecting a contraction in direct financing[2] - The focus of monetary policy will continue to be on the demand side, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and lower financing costs to stimulate effective financing demand[2] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include uncertainties surrounding the new U.S. administration's policies, which could impact global financial conditions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path[4] - The effectiveness of China's more aggressive fiscal policy and its impact on the expected return rates of RMB assets remain to be observed[4] - Tariff risks may continue to affect the Eurozone economy and inflation, adding to the uncertainty in the RMB exchange rate volatility[4]