中央经济工作会议跟踪：政策基调延续，会议部署针对性加强

Group 1: Economic Policy and Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2024, focused on analyzing the current economic situation and planning for 2025, emphasizing a stable growth strategy[3] - The meeting highlighted the need for targeted responses to internal and external economic challenges, maintaining a focus on stable growth, employment, prices, and international balance of payments[3] - A signal was given to increase the fiscal deficit ratio, with plans to issue long-term special government bonds and expand the scale of special bonds, indicating a clearer direction for a more proactive fiscal policy[3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Stability - The monetary policy is expected to include interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to maintain ample liquidity, with the 7-day OMO rate anticipated to gradually decrease[4] - The central bank will likely enhance its role in stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, while ensuring the exchange rate remains stable and balanced[4] - The focus on expanding macro-prudential measures and financial stability is expected to mitigate risks in the currency market[4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand has been prioritized, with policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and enhancing social security measures[5] - Investment policies will focus on improving efficiency, with an emphasis on new and traditional industries to drive economic recovery[5] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with continued support for sales and measures to restore consumer confidence in housing prices[5] Group 4: Asset Allocation and Risks - The economic outlook suggests manageable market risks, with a focus on domestic consumption and technology sectors such as semiconductors and consumer electronics[8] - The bond market has experienced a rapid decline, with 10-year government bonds at low levels, indicating potential volatility ahead[8] - Key risk factors include unexpected declines in overseas demand and slower-than-expected implementation of policies[8]