【浙商宏观||李超】物价合理回升,方向重于斜率

Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to economic and non-economic policies, focusing on improving overall policy effectiveness rather than just total policy volume[2][4]. - "Reasonable price recovery" is highlighted as a key focus, with expectations of ample policy space to support gradual achievement of economic goals[2][4]. Market Outlook - The stock market is favored, particularly in technology growth and small-cap themes, while short-term interest rates are expected to decline rapidly[2][4]. - A projected reduction of over 150 basis points (BP) in reserve requirement ratios and over 30 BP in interest rates by the end of 2025 is anticipated[7][8]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to reach around 4%, with special bond issuance potentially reaching 5 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting key projects and policies[11][12]. - Public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 3% and 4% respectively, indicating a focus on enhancing fiscal spending intensity[12]. Employment and Consumption - Implementation of employment support plans targeting key sectors and groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, is prioritized to prevent large-scale poverty[15][16]. - A special action to boost consumption is proposed, with a focus on supporting low-income groups and expanding service consumption in areas like elderly care and childcare[16][17]. Real Estate and Financial Stability - Continued efforts to stabilize the real estate market are emphasized, with plans for 1 million units of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations[20]. - Financial stability remains a core goal, with measures to mitigate risks in the real estate sector and among small and medium-sized banks[10]. Regional Development and Urbanization - The conference stresses the importance of regional strategies and new urbanization, aiming for a 70% urbanization rate within five years[14]. - Significant investment is expected in urban renewal projects, with an estimated demand of 4 trillion yuan for various infrastructure upgrades over the next five years[14].