银行业2025年度投资策略：风险缓释与复苏，关注股份行弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, suggesting a focus on the resilience of joint-stock banks and their recovery potential [2]. Core Viewpoints - Revenue growth for listed banks is expected to face pressure in 2025, but profits are projected to remain positive due to easing risks in real estate and local government financing [2][4]. - The expansion of passive funds is driving the performance of the banking sector, with significant increases in holdings from various institutional investors [2][4]. - Joint-stock banks are anticipated to experience a steeper recovery slope, supported by favorable policies and improving asset quality in key sectors [2][4][3]. - High dividend yields continue to provide stable returns, with many banks maintaining attractive dividend policies [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Outlook - Listed banks are expected to face revenue growth challenges in 2025, influenced by factors such as slowed expansion and narrowing net interest margins [2]. - The gradual resolution of local debt issues and effective real estate policies are likely to alleviate risk concerns for banks [2][4]. 2. Institutional Holdings Analysis - The banking sector has seen increased investments from passive funds, with significant inflows from various institutional investors, particularly in the context of a stable macroeconomic environment [2][4][100]. - The expansion of passive funds is expected to continue, benefiting banks as they are a high-weighted sector in major indices [2][4][122]. 3. Recovery of Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks are positioned for a faster recovery due to supportive policies and low current valuations, with many banks showing improved asset quality [2][4][3]. - The report highlights that joint-stock banks have lagged in valuation recovery but are now expected to catch up [2][4]. 4. Valuation of Quality Regional Banks - Certain regional banks are expected to see steady valuation increases due to their advantageous locations and the positive impact of debt resolution policies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of banks benefiting from local economic conditions and effective debt management strategies [3][4]. 5. High Dividend Yields - The banking sector continues to exhibit high dividend yields, with many banks implementing mid-term dividend distributions, reinforcing their attractiveness to income-focused investors [4][5]. - The report suggests that high dividend strategies will provide stable returns during the economic recovery phase [4][5]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: undervalued joint-stock banks, quality regional banks benefiting from debt resolution, and high-dividend banks [4][5][166].