中央经济工作会议精神学习:稳增长提升至更突出位置
China Post Securities·2024-12-13 09:44

Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing growth as a more prominent goal, with domestic demand expansion prioritized as the first key task[2] - The macro policy shift towards a more accommodative stance is confirmed, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and supporting growth[4] - Although no specific GDP growth target for 2025 was set, maintaining a reasonable growth rate around 5% is necessary to support employment goals[3] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit rate to 4%-4.5% and issuing an additional 1-2 trillion RMB in fiscal funds[21] - Monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately accommodative," with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[23] - The anticipated increase in local government special bonds could reach 4.5-5 trillion RMB, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and supporting infrastructure projects[21] Group 3: Long-term Development and Reforms - The conference highlights the importance of technological innovation and the modernization of the industrial system as key to long-term high-quality development[25] - Significant reforms are expected in 2025, focusing on state-owned enterprise reform, unified national market construction, and capital market reforms[27] - The emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market continues, with a focus on urban village redevelopment and the renovation of dilapidated housing[27]