宏观周报：加强超常规逆周期调节，美国CPI符合预期

Domestic Economic Indicators - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, widening the decline by 0.3 percentage points[8] - The PPI in November decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline[8] - Food prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to favorable weather conditions affecting supply[9] Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, with expectations for enhanced macroeconomic regulation tools in 2025[10] - The government is likely to increase the budget deficit rate from the current 3% to a range of 3.5-4% in 2025, indicating a more aggressive fiscal stance[13] - The implementation of a personal pension system nationwide is expected to stimulate consumer savings and investments, enhancing the multi-pillar pension insurance system[18] International Economic Context - Trump's ambiguous stance on tariffs may impact U.S. inflation, with recent CPI data showing a 2.7% year-on-year increase in November, aligning with market expectations and increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut[26] - Japan's GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 was revised up to 1.2%, but private consumption remains weak, indicating potential challenges for future economic stability[24] - OPEC has lowered its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.61 million barrels per day, reflecting ongoing economic weaknesses in Asia and other regions[31]