中央经济工作会议点评：流动性转向充裕格局1.8%不是债牛终点

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining stable economic growth, with a target of around 5% for the year[11] - The focus has shifted towards expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumer spending, particularly for low- and middle-income groups[12] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to shift from a "structural liquidity shortage" management model to a "liquidity abundance" model, marking a significant policy change[4] - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped to 1.8%, indicating potential for further declines in interest rates, suggesting that this may not be the end of the bond bull market[5][17] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase to between 3.8% and 4%, with special bond issuance expected to rise by 300-500 billion yuan and an additional 1 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds[12] - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including increasing social security benefits and enhancing public spending efficiency[12][22] Risk Management - There is a strong emphasis on preventing systemic financial risks, particularly in local government financing and small financial institutions[22] - The PBOC aims to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate and ensure that monetary supply growth aligns with economic growth and inflation expectations[22]