2024年中央经济工作会议点评：先分母后分子，硬科技扩内需

Policy Outlook - The 2024 economic policy is expected to be more proactive and expansionary, with a projected fiscal deficit rate potentially exceeding 9.0%[2] - The shift to a moderately loose monetary policy indicates likely interest rate cuts and increased liquidity in 2024[2] - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a focus on boosting consumption through increased resident income and support for new consumption policies[2] Industry Focus - Future industries, particularly in AI, humanoid robots, and quantum computing, are highlighted as key growth areas[2] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of personal pension systems, which will bring new capital into the market[2] - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with the real estate market capitalization to total A-share market capitalization ratio at a low of 26%[2] Investment Themes - The "first release economy" is emerging as a new economic model focusing on new products and services, aligning with consumption upgrades[3] - The silver economy is projected to grow significantly, with an expected market size of 12.3 trillion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 11.6% from 2023 to 2028[3] - The ice and snow economy is anticipated to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increased participation in winter sports and related investments[3] - The "millet economy," linked to the booming secondary culture market, is expected to reach 160 billion yuan by 2026, growing 1.7 times from 2021[3]