银行业2025年投资展望：价值增强，静待花开

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the banking sector, indicating a recovery in valuations and potential for further upside [3][5]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown significant absolute and relative returns in 2024, with a notable increase in the banking index by 28.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.1 percentage points [9]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in 2025 due to proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a stabilization of net interest margins and an improvement in asset quality [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital allocation and the potential for valuation recovery driven by improved fundamentals [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The banking sector has experienced a valuation recovery, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, and quality small and medium-sized banks all showing phases of excess returns [3]. - The report forecasts a stable credit growth in 2025, with an expected credit increment of approximately 19 trillion yuan and a growth rate of around 8% [4]. Credit Supply and Demand - The report highlights that credit supply is not a concern, with the issuance of special government bonds expected to enhance the lending capacity of state-owned banks [4]. - It notes that while credit demand from the government and state-owned enterprises is likely to increase, the situation for private enterprises remains uncertain due to external market pressures [4]. Interest Rate and Margin Analysis - The report predicts a narrowing of the decline in net interest margins due to improved deposit costs and effective interest rate transmission mechanisms [4][5]. - It estimates that the net interest margin may decrease by about 10 basis points, but the overall trend is expected to stabilize in the latter half of 2025 [4]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, with improvements anticipated in the real estate and small and micro-enterprise sectors [5]. - The report indicates that banks have been actively managing non-performing loans, which has contributed to a more favorable outlook for asset quality [5]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - The report suggests that the bond market is likely to remain favorable, and the recovery of the capital market may stabilize non-interest income contributions [5]. - It also notes that the high dividend yield of bank stocks continues to attract long-term capital, particularly from insurance companies and ETFs [6][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on bank stocks with strong cyclical characteristics, as they are expected to perform well in an improving economic environment [5]. - It highlights the potential for increased allocations to bank stocks by active funds, which currently remain underweight in this sector [29]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of banks has improved but remains within historical low ranges, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio recovering from 0.52 to 0.63 [33]. - It emphasizes that the valuation recovery is significantly correlated with expected return on equity (ROE), suggesting further upside potential as economic conditions improve [33]. Performance Overview - The report notes that the banking sector's performance has been mixed, with city commercial banks leading in revenue growth, while state-owned banks have shown signs of stabilization [45]. - It highlights that the overall profitability of listed banks has marginally improved, driven by growth in non-interest income and a reduction in the drag from net interest margins [39].