策略专题报告：特朗普内阁解析：执政思路、政策顺序和大类资产影响

Group 1 - The report highlights that Trump's return to power has led to a rapid cabinet nomination process and threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, increasing global market volatility [4] - The new cabinet is characterized by non-establishment figures, high loyalty, and a hardline stance towards China, advocating for immigration deportation, tariff increases, government layoffs, and energy independence [6][64] - The policy sequence is expected to prioritize immigration and tariffs, followed by energy policies, and later focus on fiscal measures and tax cuts [7][76] Group 2 - The election review indicates Trump's significant advantage in key swing states, securing a strong return to the presidency and a Republican majority in the Senate [5][18] - Trump's policy agenda includes "America First," emphasizing external tariffs and internal fiscal expansion, which is expected to benefit the dollar, U.S. stocks, and Bitcoin while negatively impacting U.S. bonds [50] - The cabinet's internal dynamics show potential conflicts, particularly regarding funding for immigration and fiscal policies, which will require careful coordination [64] Group 3 - The asset impact analysis suggests that U.S. stocks are likely to experience a volatile upward trend, with attention on the interplay between tax cuts benefiting earnings and rising bond yields suppressing valuations [8][50] - The report anticipates a high point for U.S. Treasury yields, with a neutral peak around 4.5%, and potential fluctuations around this level leading up to the December interest rate cut [8][50] - Gold is recommended for low-cost allocation due to geopolitical concerns and expectations of declining Treasury yields, while A/H shares are expected to consolidate as they await catalysts [8][50] Group 4 - The cabinet nominations reflect a strong anti-China sentiment, with key figures advocating for increased military spending and trade restrictions against China [57][64] - The report outlines a clear focus on immigration policy as a priority for the new administration, with significant implications for the labor market and employment dynamics in the U.S. [80][86] - The anticipated policies are expected to have a substantial impact on various sectors, including traditional energy, healthcare, and industrials, with specific ETFs and stocks recommended for investment [53][54]