11月外贸数据点评：出口维持韧性

Export Performance - In November, exports maintained resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7%, down from 12.7% in October, but still above the annual average level[21] - The trade surplus expanded to $97.44 billion in November, indicating strong export performance despite a high base effect from last year[21] - Exports to the US grew by 8.0%, remaining stable compared to the previous month, supported by a "grab export" effect[29] Import Trends - Imports fell by 3.9% year-on-year in November, a decline from the previous month's -2.3%, primarily due to the depreciation of the RMB and falling commodity prices[38] - Significant declines were observed in agricultural imports, particularly grains and soybeans, which dropped by 35.4% and 10.0% respectively[38] - The import growth rate for high-tech products further slowed, with integrated circuit imports experiencing a notable decline of 6.7%[38] Sector Analysis - The automotive export sector saw a significant downturn, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, marking the first negative growth this year, likely due to increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by the EU[33] - Consumer electronics, particularly computers and tablets, showed strong export growth at 16.2%, contributing positively to the overall machinery and electronics export performance[33] Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue, bolstered by ongoing US inventory replenishment and a global interest rate cut cycle that may enhance external demand[45] - Long-term export performance will depend on the implementation of tariff policies by major economies, particularly the US[45]