环保行业2025年年度策略：环保公用“化债”系列报告之一：应收账款重生：政府化债如何影响环保公用行业？

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical context of debt reduction cycles in China, particularly focusing on the environmental industry and its correlation with the PPP model [1][21] - The current debt reduction strategy, termed "6+4+2," is expected to positively impact the public environmental sector, particularly in alleviating accounts receivable pressure [1][46] - The report anticipates improvements in accounts receivable for environmental companies due to government debt reduction efforts, with optimistic scenarios predicting a decrease in total receivables [2][62] Summary by Sections 1. Review of Past Debt Reduction Cycles - China has experienced three major debt reduction actions, with the latest starting in 2023, which is expected to have a significant impact on the environmental industry [1][21] - The first two cycles were closely linked to the rise and fall of the PPP model, affecting the debt expansion pace in the environmental sector [1][21] 2. Improvement of Accounts Receivable in the Environmental Industry - The report outlines three main pathways for improving accounts receivable: issuing new bonds to repay debts, easing government debt pressure, and enhancing the business environment [2][51] - It is expected that this year or next, companies' financial statements will show improvement, particularly for receivables related to public welfare and long-aged project payments [2][56] 3. Beneficial Directions for Debt Reduction - Essential Service Receivables: Companies in sanitation, water services, and waste incineration are expected to benefit first due to their reliance on local government funding [3][67] - Existing PPP Projects and Long-Aged EPC Receivables: Companies with significant PPP and EPC receivables are also highlighted as having potential for recovery, especially those with stable operational businesses [4][91] 4. Outlook for the Power Industry - The report emphasizes the need to address funding sources for renewable energy subsidies, which have been a significant issue for the sector [5][113] - It suggests that expanding green electricity trading and utilizing special financing mechanisms could help alleviate the subsidy funding gap [5][140] 5. Recommendations for Specific Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Yuhua Tian, Qiaoyin Co., and others in the sanitation and water service sectors, as well as waste incineration firms like Huanlan Environment and China Everbright Environment [4][88]