2025年政策展望：灵活的内需政策与开放的贸易政策

Fiscal Policy and External Challenges - Fiscal policy in 2025 is expected to be more flexible and resilient, with a focus on building fiscal reserves before tariff impacts arrive[1][3] - A 12 trillion yuan incremental fiscal policy is proposed, primarily aimed at debt resolution rather than direct consumption or real estate stimulus[4] - Fiscal policy may adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, adjusting dynamically based on external shocks, with significant action likely post-tariff impact[5] Monetary Policy and Economic Stimulus - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts of 0.25-0.5 percentage points[6] - A weaker dollar in 2025 could provide room for RMB appreciation, enabling more aggressive monetary easing to support fiscal policy[7][9] Trade and Export Dynamics - Export growth may remain strong in early 2025 due to "pre-tariff stockpiling" by U.S. businesses, similar to the 2017-2018 trade friction period[10] - Post-tariff implementation, exports are likely to face pressure, necessitating increased fiscal stimulus focused on domestic consumption[9][11] Domestic Consumption and Subsidies - Consumption subsidies, particularly for durable goods like cars and appliances, are expected to continue, with potential expansion to smaller items and services[11] - Increased subsidies for fertility, employment, and elderly care could boost disposable income and consumption in 2025[12] Strategic Trade and Geopolitical Adjustments - China may adopt a "sports war" strategy to improve trade relations with U.S. allies like Europe, Japan, and South Korea, mitigating unilateral tariff pressures[14] - The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could reduce geopolitical tensions, creating opportunities for trade normalization with Europe[14]