踏迹寻踵，静待复苏-我国房地产销售周期特征分析

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, suggesting that the current downtrend may continue, with potential for stabilization in the near future [1][9]. Core Insights - The real estate market in China has experienced four distinct cycles over the past two decades, with the current cycle beginning in March 2015 and characterized by a prolonged downturn [9][12]. - The report highlights that the current cycle's downtrend has been significantly longer and more severe compared to previous cycles, with sales volume and prices showing signs of instability [1][9]. - Recent data suggests a potential turning point, with improvements in sales area growth and stabilization in second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities as of October 2024 [1][9][80]. Summary by Sections 1. Housing Policy Development - The evolution of housing policies in China has transitioned from a focus on public housing to a market-oriented approach since the late 1990s, with significant reforms aimed at stabilizing the housing market [3][4][6]. - The introduction of the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy in 2016 marked a pivotal shift in the government's approach to real estate, emphasizing the need for a balanced housing supply and demand [6][9]. 2. Domestic Real Estate Cycle Classification - The report categorizes the real estate market into four cycles based on cumulative sales area growth, with the current cycle being the longest and most challenging [9][10]. - The first three cycles lasted approximately three years each, while the current cycle has extended beyond nine years, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [9][12]. 3. Sales and Price Trends - Sales volume peaked in 2021, with a notable increase in both sales area and monetary value, but has since faced substantial declines, particularly in early 2024 [62][63]. - The report notes that housing prices in first-tier cities have shown a more pronounced fluctuation compared to second and third-tier cities, with a delayed response in price adjustments following changes in sales volume [63][64]. 4. Inventory and Debt Issues - The report highlights a concerning trend of increasing inventory levels, particularly during the current cycle, which has led to a prolonged period of adjustment and debt defaults among real estate companies [70][71]. - The financialization of the real estate sector has resulted in high leverage and vulnerability among developers, leading to widespread defaults and a credit crisis that has affected both small and large firms [70][71]. 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there are signs of potential recovery, the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to demographic shifts, economic pressures, and the need for structural reforms in the housing market [80].