Fiscal Policy Insights - The central government's fiscal deficit is expected to exceed 4% in 2025, indicating an increase from the 3.8% deficit in 2023[2] - The total issuance of central and local government bonds, along with ultra-long-term special bonds, reached 8.96 trillion in 2024, with an additional 2 to 3 trillion expected in 2025[2] - New fiscal funds will focus on expansionary policies, including support for "two new" initiatives and bank capital replenishment[2] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A significant shift to "moderately loose" monetary policy is anticipated, with a 100 basis point (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut and a 30 BP interest rate reduction in 2024[3] - The need for additional relending tools and asset purchase mechanisms is highlighted to effectively inject liquidity into the economy[3] - The 2025 monetary policy will aim to stimulate economic leverage while controlling deleveraging, similar to strategies used during the 2008 global financial crisis[3] Domestic Demand Expansion - The "all-round" expansion of domestic demand will continue to support "two new" initiatives, with an increase in the 300 billion ultra-long-term special bond funding[3] - Consumer retail growth has been robust, particularly in office supplies, automobiles, and home appliances, while there is potential for growth in service consumption[3] - The adjustment of holiday arrangements in 2025 aims to enhance service consumption, which is crucial for employment, especially with a large number of graduates entering the job market[3]
准确认识超常规逆周期调节 把握全方位扩内需政策
Lian He Zi Xin·2024-12-13 13:40