华金宏观·双循环周报（第86期）：欧瑞央行“未雨绸缪”开启预防式降息

Group 1: ECB Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) again, signaling a dovish stance by removing previous language about maintaining a restrictive policy until inflation decreases[11] - The ECB has lowered its economic outlook, predicting that the Eurozone's HICP and core HICP will fall to 1.9% by 2026, with a total of 100 BP cut across four rate reductions so far[11] - ECB President Lagarde highlighted significant downside risks to growth, particularly due to trade restrictions and protectionist measures from the U.S.[11] Group 2: Global Economic Context - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) preemptively cut rates by 50 BP to 0.5%, exceeding market expectations, which may foreshadow similar actions by the ECB[13] - The U.S. dollar index has surged past 107, driven by persistent core inflation, creating depreciation pressure on non-U.S. currencies[11] - The report anticipates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 50 BP in the first half of 2025, with no further cuts expected thereafter[15] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Risks - U.S. core CPI remained stable at a high level for the fourth consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[15] - The report warns of potential passive depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan if the Fed's rate cuts are less than expected[16] - The Eurozone is not expected to face significant inflation risks despite euro depreciation, as the primary risk stems from weakening domestic demand[13]