宏观数据观察：稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes a stable yet progressive economic approach for 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[5] - In Q4 2024, China's GDP is expected to achieve a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a strong likelihood of meeting the annual 5% target[8] - Domestic demand stimulation and external trade stability are prioritized to mitigate external risks[8] Consumer and Investment Trends - October's retail sales grew by only 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a need for improved consumer confidence and internal growth drivers[6] - Investment in high-tech and durable consumer goods is expected to increase, supported by favorable monetary policies and government initiatives[9][11] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to be set between 3.5% and 4%, with an increase in special bond issuance to support economic growth[9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts of 20-40 basis points, marking the most significant easing in nearly a decade[10] Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and increasing mortgage support expected to take effect in 2025[14] - The stock market is projected to remain stable, bolstered by increased liquidity and supportive fiscal and monetary policies, with nominal GDP growth expected to exceed 5%[15]