Workflow
宏观政策力度继续加大,有望支撑钢价逐步向好钢铁
Xinda Securities·2024-12-14 03:52

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic policies are expected to support a gradual improvement in steel prices, with a focus on stabilizing growth and enhancing domestic demand [3][4]. - Despite facing supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the steel demand is anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase due to supportive factors such as real estate stabilization, steady infrastructure investment, and high steel exports [4]. - The report highlights that the current low levels of social and factory inventories of steel products are conducive to a stronger price performance in the future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector experienced a decline of 0.87% this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel increasing by 0.47% while long products and flat products saw slight declines [2][12][14]. Key Data - Daily average pig iron production as of December 13 was 2.3247 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.14% but a year-on-year increase of 2.47% [16]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 87.3%, down 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [17]. - The total production of five major steel products was 7.59 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.27% [21]. Consumption and Inventory - The consumption of five major steel products increased to 8.817 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.81% [22]. - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.89% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][4]. Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel prices rose slightly to 3681.7 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.73% [3][4]. - The report notes that the prices of raw materials remained stable, with slight increases in certain categories [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-margin special steel companies and leading steel enterprises with strong cost control and scale advantages, as they are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [4]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Jiu Li Special Materials, Changbao Co., and Baosteel [4].