终端库存&产地供给边际下降，煤价预期可乐观些

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new economic cycle, with a favorable fundamental and policy environment, making it a good time to invest in coal stocks [5][15] - Current coal supply is tight, with a utilization rate of 98.2% for thermal coal mines and 91.19% for coking coal mines, indicating a slight decrease in production capacity [5][15] - Demand for coal has increased, with inland provinces showing a rise in daily consumption by 44.20 thousand tons (+11.38%) and coastal provinces by 19.30 thousand tons (+9.58%) [5][15] - The report emphasizes that coal prices are expected to stabilize above 800 RMB/ton, with long-term contracts around 700 RMB/ton, suggesting a bullish outlook for coal prices [5][15] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Viewpoints and Key Focus - The coal sector is experiencing a new upward cycle, with a recommendation to invest during price dips [15] - Supply-side constraints are evident, with limited room for production increases as year-end production targets are met [15] 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of December 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 794 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton from the previous week [27] - The report notes that international thermal coal prices have remained stable, with Newcastle coal at 89.8 USD/ton [27] 3. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption, particularly in non-electric sectors such as chemicals and steel, with chemical coal consumption rising by 10.20 thousand tons/day (+1.51%) [5][15] - The report also notes a decrease in coal inventory levels, with a reduction of 171 thousand tons (-1.3%) [5][15] 4. Coal Inventory Situation - The report indicates that coal inventories are decreasing, with coastal provinces showing an increase in daily consumption and a reduction in stock levels [5][15] 5. Coal Transportation Situation - The report provides insights into coal transportation metrics, indicating a slight decrease in coal transport volumes [10] 6. Weather Situation - The report does not provide specific weather-related insights but implies that seasonal temperature drops will increase residential electricity demand, potentially boosting coal demand [5][15] 7. Valuation of Listed Companies and Key Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential and resource advantages, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy [16]