煤炭行业：高库存下煤价承压，关注高股息标的提估值机会

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating [2] Core Viewpoints - High inventory levels are putting pressure on coal prices, but demand during peak seasons is expected to stabilize prices. The current ten-year treasury yield is declining, suggesting a favorable environment for high-dividend stocks with strong resource endowments and high long-term contract ratios. Focus on companies with improving production and sales, as policy support may enhance the performance of coking coal [1][2] - The coal industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies and increasing safety and environmental regulations leading to supply constraints. The demand for coal remains resilient due to its status as a primary energy source, despite pressures from macroeconomic factors and the growth of renewable energy [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The coal index fell by 1.02% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 1.01%. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 7.51%, while the broader index has increased by 14.63%, indicating a 7.13% underperformance of the coal sector [14][16] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of December 13, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 790 CNY/ton, down 22 CNY/ton (-2.7%) week-on-week. The production rate in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 84.5%, up 0.6 percentage points week-on-week [25][30] - Methanol and urea production rates are slightly increasing, with methanol at 87.4% (+0.6 percentage points week-on-week) and urea at 82.4% (+0.1 percentage points week-on-week) [1][25] 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton (-0.4%) month-on-month and down 14 CNY/ton (-2.0%) year-on-year [26] 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic coal prices have seen significant declines, with the Inner Mongolia price dropping to 623 CNY/ton (-7.57% week-on-week) and the Shanxi price at 653 CNY/ton (-3.12% week-on-week) [30] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions is 84.5%, with Inner Mongolia showing the highest rate at 91.6% [45] 3.2 Demand - The daily coal consumption of the six major power plants increased to 81.7 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons week-on-week. However, the inventory decreased to 1429.7 thousand tons, down 14.9 thousand tons week-on-week [47] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy. Additionally, consider companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential [1]