11月信贷社融点评：化债下资产荒压力显现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - M1 decline narrows, credit growth slows, and asset scarcity pressure emerges under debt reduction [2] - In November 2024, new social financing increased by 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate remaining stable at 7.8% [2] - New RMB loans in November 2024 amounted to 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan, with a balance growth rate declining by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7% [2] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans in November was 3.45%, down 2 basis points month-on-month, while the rate for new personal housing loans was 3.08%, down 7 basis points month-on-month [2] Summary by Sections Credit Market Overview - In November 2024, new RMB loans totaled 580 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan. Residential loans increased by 270 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion yuan, while corporate loans (excluding bills) increased by 200 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 416.5 billion yuan [2] - Short-term loans for residents saw a negative increase of 37 billion yuan, indicating weak consumer demand, while medium to long-term loans increased by 300 billion yuan, supported by a marginal recovery in the housing market [2] Social Financing Analysis - New social financing in November 2024 was 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds, while RMB loans were the main drag [2] - Government bonds contributed significantly with 1.3 trillion yuan in new issuance, a year-on-year increase of 158.9 billion yuan [2] Monetary Supply and Demand - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.4 percentage points month-on-month, suggesting improved liquidity due to debt reduction measures [2] - M2 growth rate was 7.1%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4 percentage points, influenced by ongoing discussions regarding self-discipline initiatives for interbank deposits [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend banks such as Shanghai Bank, Hu Nong Commercial Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, while also suggesting to accumulate cyclical banks like China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, and Industrial Bank during dips [5]