煤炭行业2025年度投资策略：稳稳的幸福

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies [4]. Core Insights - Supply-side capacity constraints persist, with new production mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, leading to limited overall impact on the coal market [3][41]. - Demand is expected to stabilize, with significant growth anticipated in thermal power generation in 2025, supported by coal chemical demand [3][65]. - The price center for thermal coal is projected to rise, with expectations of reaching around 900 RMB/ton in 2025, up from 870 RMB/ton in 2024 [3]. - The low interest rate environment is likely to enhance sector valuations, with increasing cash flow stability and high dividend yields for leading companies [3]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong earnings resilience and growth potential, such as Jinko Coal, Shanxi Coal International, and China Shenhua [3]. Supply Analysis - Supply bottlenecks continue, with new capacity primarily in Xinjiang, which has limited market impact [3][41]. - Production is expected to recover in 2025, particularly in Shanxi, with an anticipated increase of approximately 44 million tons [3][46]. - The overall national coal production in October 2024 was 41.18 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [30]. Demand Analysis - The demand for coal is expected to stabilize, with thermal power generation playing a crucial role in supporting coal demand [3][65]. - The construction sector is anticipated to improve due to local government debt management, which may enhance infrastructure demand [3][65]. - Coal chemical demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate, contributing positively to overall coal demand [3][65]. Price and Valuation - The price center for thermal coal is expected to rise to around 900 RMB/ton in 2025, reflecting improved supply-demand dynamics [3]. - The coal sector is entering a high dividend era, with increasing net cash companies enhancing overall sector valuations [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Jinko Coal, Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yancoal Energy for their potential valuation recovery [3][4]. - Industry leaders such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua are highlighted for their stable performance [3][4]. - Companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as China Coal Energy and Xinji Energy, are also recommended [3][4].