电力行业2025年度投资策略：攻守兼备，低利率背景下的优质选择

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for dividend assets, particularly in the electricity sector, due to their stable earnings and cash flow, which provide a favorable cost-performance ratio in the current low-interest-rate environment [3][15][186]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to benefit from a stable demand growth of 5%-8% in electricity consumption, driven by a projected GDP growth of around 5% in 2025 [19][40]. - The supply-demand dynamics indicate opportunities arising from mismatches, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, where electricity supply pressures are significant [19][40]. - The green electricity market is anticipated to grow, with a focus on the value of green electricity and installed capacity growth, particularly in offshore wind energy, which is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8% globally from 2023 to 2028 [3][45][69]. - Thermal power is expected to maintain profitability due to stable demand and low costs, with coal prices projected to decrease by about 5% in 2025 [3][120]. - Hydropower and nuclear power are highlighted for their stable dividend characteristics, with hydropower companies showing strong cash flow and high dividend payout ratios [3][140][170]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a diverse electricity supply landscape, with significant regional demand growth and supply shortages in key provinces [19][40]. - The overall electricity consumption in China is projected to grow by 5%-8% in 2025, with specific regions experiencing higher growth rates [19][40]. 2. Green Electricity - The establishment of a unified green electricity market is expected to enhance the value of green electricity, with significant growth in green certificate trading [45][56]. - Offshore wind energy is projected to see substantial growth, with a focus on projects that are close to load centers to alleviate consumption pressures [60][69]. 3. Thermal Power - Thermal power is expected to play a crucial role in balancing supply and demand, particularly in regions with high electricity consumption [94][120]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to decline, which will help stabilize the profitability of thermal power companies [120][126]. 4. Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Hydropower is characterized by stable cash flows and high dividend payouts, with significant investments in new projects expected to drive growth [140][164]. - The nuclear power sector is entering a phase of accelerated approvals, with a significant increase in the number of operational units expected in the coming years [170][176]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the green electricity sector, such as Three Gorges Energy and Funiu Co., while also highlighting the stability of hydropower and nuclear power companies [186][188].