新能源汽车行业2025年度投资策略：供给优化需求蓄势，成长续新篇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry [5] Core Insights - The overseas demand for NEVs contains unexpected potential, indicating that the NEV industry remains a high-quality growth sector. In 2024, domestic market demand is expected to show impressive growth despite a high base, while the European and American markets are experiencing a slowdown. However, positive changes in policies and supply are being observed, such as stricter carbon emission standards in Europe, which stimulate electrification, and a decrease in traditional vehicle supply due to declining profits for traditional automakers. The report suggests that the European market is on the verge of a significant demand increase as the competitiveness of electric vehicles improves globally [2][3] - Profitability trends are improving, with price increases in the materials sector becoming apparent. The lithium battery supply chain has seen continuous performance declines since early 2022, but has entered a recovery phase since Q1 2024. The report anticipates that certain segments of the materials sector are now positioned for price increases, particularly copper foil, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate, which are expected to stabilize or increase in price [2][3] - Solid-state batteries represent a significant technological advancement, opening up valuation opportunities across the sector. Solid-state batteries are gaining attention for their applications in NEVs, eVTOLs, and robotics, and are being prioritized by leading companies like CATL and Huawei. The report emphasizes that solid-state batteries could drive technological upgrades in lithium battery materials over the long term, suggesting investors should focus on new materials and supply chain opportunities during the industrialization process [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The lithium battery sector has shown significant performance improvement since September 24, 2024, with the SW lithium battery index rising by 41.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 27.4 percentage points [30] Production and Sales Growth - In the first ten months of 2024, China's power battery production, sales, and installed capacity reached 847.5 GWh, 626.2 GWh, and 405.9 GWh respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 48%, 29%, and 38% [34][39] Material Prices and Profitability - Material prices have continued to decline, but the rate of decline has significantly slowed. By the end of November 2024, the price of lithium carbonate had decreased by 19% since the beginning of the year, with various materials experiencing different levels of price reductions [44] - The report indicates that the overall revenue of 57 listed companies in the lithium battery supply chain totaled 1,248.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4% [54] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the lithium battery supply chain that are currently undervalued, including leading firms and those expected to benefit from price increases in the short term, as well as companies positioned to gain from solid-state battery advancements [3]