普林格与盈利周期跟踪：逆周期，待春来

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that identifying the performance turning point is crucial for the market to emerge from the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically appearing 1-2 quarters ahead of performance turning points [3] - The report highlights that while the Plinger synchronous indicators are essential, they should be analyzed in conjunction with leading indicators to improve the foresight of economic bottom judgments [3][4] - The report indicates that the key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with residential medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment continues to improve, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.3% in November, indicating expansion [6][28] - The social financing scale increased by 2.3 trillion yuan in November, which is 119.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting a structural shift with new government bonds turning positive [14][28] - The report notes that while the M1 year-on-year decline has narrowed, M2 has decreased, and the social financing stock remains stable year-on-year, indicating a retreat in excess liquidity [10][28] Group 3 - The report states that the residential medium and long-term loans have shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year decline of -19.08% in November, an improvement from -20.96% previously [18] - The report mentions that the corporate medium and long-term loans continue to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -21.7% in November, indicating potential areas for improvement in credit structure [18] - The report emphasizes that the marginal rise in the DR007 rate to 1.67% in November suggests a stabilization of liquidity prices, which is a necessary condition for the market to find a bottom [24][25]