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煤炭行业周报:政策托底内需,坚定红利投资价值
Tebon Securities·2024-12-15 05:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy support is expected to bolster domestic demand, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the coal sector [2] Price Analysis - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 790 CNY/ton, down approximately 22 CNY/ton (-2.71%) from the previous week [4][57] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1620 CNY/ton [5][64] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in coal prices due to increased winter storage demand driven by cold weather [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes an increase in railway coal input to Qinhuangdao Port, with a total of 54.2 thousand tons, up 1.69% from the previous week [87] - The total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao is reported at 686 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous week [95] Inventory Analysis - The report highlights a mixed inventory situation, with southern ports seeing an increase in coal inventory while northern ports experience a decrease [93] - The inventory of coking coal at steel enterprises has increased by 1.91% to 756.02 thousand tons [100] International Market Overview - The Newcastle FOB thermal coal price is reported at 87 USD/ton, down 0.55 USD/ton (-0.63%) [109] - The report indicates a narrowing price gap for thermal coal and an expanding gap for coking coal in the international market [111] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with a reported decline of 1.02% compared to a 0.36% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [112]