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化纤11月月报:PA6价格环比上涨,织物制品出口同比上涨
华福证券·2024-12-15 06:01

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - PA6 prices increased month-on-month, while spandex prices slightly decreased [2][12] - High operating rates maintained in the supply side [2][30] - Fabric exports increased year-on-year, while US apparel inventory rose slightly month-on-month [2][42] - Domestic demand improvement and overseas inventory reduction are expected to boost fiber demand [2] - Industry concentration is expected to increase after this round of expansion, with a potential slowdown in future expansion pace, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [2] Price Analysis - PA6 price: 12,700 RMB/ton, up 2.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Spandex price: 23,750 RMB/ton, down 1.0% month-on-month [2][11] - Caprolactam price: 11,275 RMB/ton, up 5.4% month-on-month [2][11] - Adipic acid price: 8,150 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Nylon staple fiber price: 13,950 RMB/ton, up 2.2% month-on-month [2][11] - Acrylic staple fiber price: 14,250 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [2][11] - Viscose staple fiber price: 13,850 RMB/ton, down 0.4% month-on-month [2][11] - PA66 price: 23,900 RMB/ton, down 1.4% month-on-month [2][11] Supply Analysis - Spandex operating rate: 87%, inventory: 49 days [2][30] - Acrylic operating rate: 51.1%, inventory: 16 days [2][30] - Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 89%, inventory: 5 days [2][30] Downstream Demand Analysis - Textile yarn, fabric, and related product exports: $12.3 billion, up 23.7% year-on-year [2][42] - Apparel and clothing accessories exports: $130.9 billion, up 8.1% year-on-year [2][42] - US apparel and fabric wholesaler inventory: $281.61 billion, up 0.3% month-on-month [2][42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on differentiated nylon leader Juheshun and cost-advantaged spandex leader Huafon Chemical [2]