食品饮料行业2025年度策略报告（二）：白酒：积极因素增加，曙光渐现

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the liquor industry, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is expected to enter a phase of supply-demand balance in 2025, with positive factors emerging despite uncertainties in demand recovery [1][4][17]. - The report highlights that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor sector is at historically low levels, indicating that the market has priced in much of the pessimism regarding performance declines [1][4][17]. - Guizhou Moutai is actively addressing supply-demand mismatches and is expected to see improvements in both domestic and international markets by 2025 [1][4][17]. - The competition in the liquor industry remains intense, with companies focusing on enhancing product quality and increasing expenditures to capture market share [1][4][17]. Summary by Sections Review of 2024 - The liquor industry faced a slowdown in growth, with the overall demand lower than in 2023, particularly in banquet and gifting scenarios [1][4][21]. - The report notes a 6.6% decline in the Shenwan Liquor Index year-to-date as of December 11, 2024, with a projected net profit growth rate decrease of 7.2% for 2024 [1][4][21]. - The report indicates that the inventory levels in channels have increased, leading to price pressures, particularly for high-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][4][21]. Outlook for 2025 - The report anticipates that the liquor industry will see improvements in both supply and demand, with the potential for a better-than-expected performance during the 2025 Spring Festival sales season [1][4][51]. - Guizhou Moutai is expected to lower its growth targets, which may help stabilize prices and improve market conditions [1][4][51]. - The report emphasizes that the focus will be on enhancing product quality and increasing marketing expenditures to maintain market share [1][4][51]. Investment Strategies - The report identifies three main investment themes for 2025: 1. Brands with strong fundamentals and low channel risks, such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][4][141]. 2. Companies with strong cyclical attributes that can benefit from inventory reduction and demand recovery, such as Luzhou Laojiao [1][4][141]. 3. Companies undergoing organizational and product reforms, such as Kuozi Jiao [1][4][141]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a net profit of 852.0 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.0% in 2025 [2][148]. - Wuliangye is expected to report a net profit of 326.6 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.1% in 2025 [2][149]. - Luzhou Laojiao is forecasted to have a net profit of 138.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 4.8% in 2025 [2][165].