证券研究报告 | 2025年11月29日 宏观经济周报 服务业与制造业的共赢逻辑 在探讨经济结构转型时，许多人容易陷入一个认知误区，认为服务业与制造 业是此消彼长的对立关系。然而，全球经济发展历程告诉我们，这两大产业 更像是默契的舞伴，在全球经济舞台上相互配合、彼此成就。 反过来看，服务业也为制造业提供了全方位支撑。庞大的服务业从业群体构 成了制造业产品的核心消费力量，而服务业自身的发展也产生了对制造业产 品的巨大需求——从医疗设备到教学器材，无不如此。更具深远意义的是， 服务业承担着人力资本"加油站"的关键职能。这让我们想起计划经济时期制 造企业自办学校、医院的情景，其本质就是对服务消费保障劳动力再生产的 朴素认知。在现代经济中，教育、医疗、文娱等服务通过提升劳动者的身心 健康和知识技能，直接决定着制造业核心要素的质量。一支通过优质服务获 得更好健康和更高技能的劳动力队伍，正是制造业实现创新突破的根本保 障。 当前，中国正处于经济转型升级的关键时期。我们应当充分认识到，推动制 造业高质量发展将为研发设计、数字服务等生产性服务业创造更大空间；而 促进服务业提质扩容，特别是改善教育和医疗等公共服务，又能为制造业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a 42.5% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, driven by product and store efficiency optimization, as well as an increase in gross margin [1][3] - Same-store sales continued to show double-digit growth from October 1 to November 21, indicating a sustained positive trend [1] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.55 per share, with a payout ratio of 52% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2026, the company achieved revenue of HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, and a net profit of HKD 619 million, reflecting a growth of 42.5% [1] - The gross margin improved by 2 percentage points to 34.7%, reaching a historical high, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin priced jewelry [2] - The retail business revenue grew by 12.8%, accounting for 76.8% of total revenue, while wholesale business revenue surged by 190.6%, making up 16.3% of total revenue [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue from weight-based products increased by 11%, while fixed-price products saw a growth of 67.9%, with the latter's share rising by 8.8 percentage points to 35.7%, and the proportion of priced gold is expected to reach around 25% [2] - The revenue from the mainland China market grew by 54.2%, accounting for 43.6% of total revenue, while revenue from Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets increased by 9.9%, making up 56.4% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from product innovation, channel optimization, and accelerated overseas development, with projected net profits of HKD 1.501 billion, HKD 1.787 billion, and HKD 2.028 billion for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [3][4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 9.5, 8.0, and 7.1 for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated a significant acceleration in revenue growth in Q3, achieving a revenue of 5.797 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 was 1.022 billion, up 14.8% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit reached 767 million, reflecting an 11.7% increase [2]. - The company expects Q4 revenue growth to be between 25% and 30%, with double-digit same-store sales growth anticipated in both China and the U.S. [2]. - The domestic business is benefiting from a large store strategy and refined operations, with same-store sales showing a positive trend [4]. - The overseas business is expanding rapidly, with a net addition of 117 stores in Q3, bringing the total overseas store count to 3,424 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue for the brand was 5.222 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%, with domestic revenue at 2.909 billion, up 19.3% [2]. - The company forecasts a full-year revenue growth of 25%, with adjusted operating profit expected to be between 3.65 billion and 3.85 billion [4]. - The financial projections for 2023 to 2027 indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with 2023 revenue projected at 13.839 billion, growing to 28.578 billion by 2027 [5]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.253 billion, with a projected increase to 3.257 billion by 2027 [5].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the small-cap growth sector has rebounded, with all four active quantitative strategies outperforming the equity index this week [1][12] - The performance tracking of Guosen Securities' active quantitative strategies shows significant absolute and relative returns across various combinations, indicating strong investment opportunities [1][12] Summary by Strategy Excellent Fund Performance Enhancement Strategy - This strategy achieved an absolute return of 4.01% this week and a year-to-date return of 23.48%, ranking in the 56.53 percentile among active equity funds [1][21] - The strategy aims to outperform the median return of active equity funds by utilizing a quantitative approach based on the holdings of top-performing funds [3][17] Expected Selection Strategy - The expected selection strategy recorded an absolute return of 3.89% this week and 38.59% year-to-date, ranking in the 27.24 percentile among active equity funds [1][29] - This strategy selects stocks based on positive earnings surprises and analyst upgrades, focusing on both fundamental and technical criteria [4][22] Broker's Golden Stock Performance Enhancement Strategy - This strategy achieved an absolute return of 5.02% this week and 33.65% year-to-date, ranking in the 35.37 percentile among active equity funds [1][37] - It utilizes a stock pool from broker recommendations, optimizing the selection to maintain alignment with the performance of the broker's stock pool [5][30] Growth Stability Strategy - The growth stability strategy reported an absolute return of 4.39% this week and 49.35% year-to-date, ranking in the 13.92 percentile among active equity funds [1][42] - This strategy employs a two-dimensional evaluation system for growth stocks, prioritizing those with upcoming earnings announcements to capture potential excess returns [6][38]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月29日 港股投资周报 医药板块领涨，港股精选组合年内上涨 60.69% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 2.43%，相对恒生指数超额收益-0.10%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 60.69%，相对恒生指数超额收益 31.78%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，环球新材国际等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为制造、大金融、 消费、医药和科技板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生科技指数收益最高，累计收益 3.77%；恒生大型股 指数收益最低，累计收益 2.45%。 行业指数方面，本周原材料业行业收益最高，累计收益 4.28%；能源业行业 收益最低，累计收益-0.70%。 概念板块方面，本周纸业概念板块收益最高，累计收益 10.22%；国内零售 概念板块收益最低，累计收益-3.91%。 南向资金监控 南向资金整体 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月28日 2025年11月29日 金融工程日报 沪指窄幅震荡上行，两市成交额创近 4 个月以来新低 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20251128 大部分指数处于上涨状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指数 表现较好，板块指数中科创 100 指数表现较好，风格指数中中证 500 成长指 数表现较好。农林牧渔、国防军工、商贸零售、有色金属、基础化工行业表 现较好，银行、煤炭、非银、医药、通信行业表现较差。两岸融合、钛白粉、 海南自贸港、锂矿、磷酸铁锂电池等概念表现较好，游戏出海、拼多多合作 商、央企银行、维生素、中药精选等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20251128 收盘时有 82 只股票涨停，有 6 只股票跌停。昨日涨停 股票今日收盘收益为 1.04%，昨日跌停股票今日收盘收益为-3.35%。今日封 板率 71%，较前日提升 10%，连板率 21%，较前日提升 6%。 市场资金流向：截至 20251127 两融余额为 24720 亿元，其中融资余额 24550 亿元，融券余额 170 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 10.4%。 折溢价：2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][37][42]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 1.4% to 8.93 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 5.3% to 1.19 billion yuan for the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year [1][10]. - The brand's down jacket segment continues to lead growth, with a revenue increase of 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, despite challenges in other segments [1][15]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory by 20.3% and improved cash flow, maintaining a stable dividend payout with a mid-term dividend of 6.3 HKD cents, up 5% year-on-year [2][28]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, the company achieved a revenue of 89.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.4% and 5.3% year-on-year increase, respectively [1][10]. - The overall gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, driven by the growth in the down jacket business [1][23]. Business Segments - **Brand Down Jackets**: Revenue increased by 8.3% to 6.57 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 59.1%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [1][15]. - **OEM Processing**: Revenue decreased by 11.8% to 2.04 billion yuan, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% [15][23]. - **Women's Wear**: Revenue fell by 18.6% to 250 million yuan, with a gross margin of 59.9% [15][23]. - **Diversified Apparel**: Revenue decreased by 45.3% to 60 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the school uniform business [16][23]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on brand leadership and product innovation by collaborating with top international designers to enhance its high-end image and market recognition [3][31]. - Digital transformation efforts include establishing an AI innovation lab in collaboration with Zhejiang University to improve design efficiency [3][32]. - The company is optimizing its channel strategy, with online revenue growth of 2.4% and a net increase of 85 self-operated stores and 285 dealer stores [3][33]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by strong sales performance in the down jacket segment since October [4][37]. - Profit forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 are projected at 3.91 billion, 4.30 billion, and 4.73 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 10.2%, and 10.0% [4][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) [5][25] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY26Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Chinese e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, and cloud intelligence group achieved year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 34%, respectively, while other segments saw a decline of 25% [1][9] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 9.1 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.7%. The non-GAAP net profit was 10.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of 21.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in flash sales and cloud infrastructure [1][9] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's CMR revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in FY26Q2, benefiting from increased technology service fees and improved site penetration rates. Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%, a decline of 31 percentage points [2][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience while maintaining market share, with logistics costs significantly reduced compared to previous large-scale investments [2][14] Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q2 was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue continuing to show triple-digit growth [3][15] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the cloud segment was 9.0%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the quarter were 31.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][15] - The company anticipates a strong demand for AI over the next three years, with potential for additional CAPEX investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,046.3 billion yuan, 1,182.3 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, respectively, with minor downward adjustments due to a focus on profitability in international e-commerce [4][25] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are set at 111.7 billion yuan, 145.0 billion yuan, and 172.0 billion yuan, with slight adjustments reflecting better-than-expected profit improvement in international e-commerce [4][25] - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24 times for FY2026 [4][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][13] Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid revenue and profit growth driven by original research drugs, and this trend is expected to continue long-term [1][6] - For FY2026, the company projects a revenue growth of 10-15% year-on-year, with a mid-year revenue of 167 billion yuan, representing a 17% increase compared to the previous year [1][6] - The adjusted net profit for FY2025 was 14 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.1% [2][7] Revenue Summary - The company's self-operated pharmaceutical revenue reached 143 billion yuan in FY2026, up 19% year-on-year, largely due to a 99% increase in SKU supply for B2C retail products [1][6] - E-commerce platform service revenue was 18 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue growing over 10% [1][6] - The medical health and digital services segment generated 5 billion yuan, also reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][6] Profit Summary - The adjusted net profit margin improved to 8.1% in FY2025, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.1% [2][7] - The company has reduced its fulfillment cost ratio to 8.2%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [2][7] - For FY2026, the company anticipates a net profit growth of 20-30% year-on-year, with a mid-year profit projection of 1-21% [2][7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to 348 billion, 379 billion, and 410 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [3][13] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 25 billion, 30 billion, and 34 billion yuan, also a 6% increase from prior estimates [3][13] - The current stock price corresponds to a FY2026 price-to-earnings ratio of 37 times [3][13]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...