证券研究报告 | 2025年11月21日 **Acknowledgement** **The authors thank the anonymous referee for the help and comments on the manuscript.** 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 4.83%、8.65%、6.20%、9.69%、7.59%、 7.40%、12.16%、16.45%。中信一级行业指数中石油石化、纺织服装、 基础化工、家电、钢铁行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、综合 金融、商贸零售、非银行金融、建筑行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。概 念指数中，石油天然气、锂矿、林木、锂电池、HJT 电池、万得微盘股 日频等权、操作系统等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日，共 1127 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to monitor market trends and identify potential market leaders. It is based on the momentum and trend-following strategy, which has been proven effective in various studies[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as follows: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value, indicating the degree of decline[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market trends and highlights stocks or indices that are leading the market, aligning with the principles of momentum and trend-following strategies[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on selecting stocks that exhibit stable price paths and consistent momentum, as smoother price trajectories are associated with stronger momentum effects[24][27]. - **Model Construction Process**: The selection process involves the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day price change in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: Stocks are ranked based on: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Ratio of price displacement to the total price path - **Sustainability of New Highs**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these criteria are selected[24][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model emphasizes the importance of smooth price paths and consistent momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24][27]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Stable New High Stock Selection Model - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative distance of a stock's price from its 250-day high, serving as an indicator of momentum and trend strength[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: The formula is: $ 250 \text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where: - $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price - $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, making it a reliable indicator for identifying market leaders[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, as smoother paths are associated with stronger momentum effects[24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the ratio of price displacement to the total price path over a specified period - Rank stocks based on this ratio and select the top performers[24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor highlights stocks with stable momentum, which are less likely to attract excessive attention and thus yield stronger returns[24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 4.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 8.65% - CSI 300: 6.20% - CSI 500: 9.69% - CSI 1000: 7.59% - CSI 2000: 7.40% - ChiNext Index: 12.16% - STAR 50 Index: 16.45%[12][13][32] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 15 stocks were identified, including Heertai, Sray New Materials, and Zangge Mining. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 5 stocks (e.g., construction industry) - Cyclical: 5 stocks (e.g., non-ferrous metals industry)[28][33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月21日 策略研究 · 策略专题 证券分析师：王开 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60933132 021-60375429 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 全球资管深研系列（三) 如何延拓投研能力圈？ 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 n BNY Mellon构建投研能力圈的核心战略在于通过精准并购实现能力整合与跃迁。其并非依靠内 部自主培养，而是通过系统性收购各细分领域的成熟"精品店" ，将外部顶尖的投研团队与策略 体系（如Insight Investment的固收专长、Newton的主动管理能力）纳入麾下，从而快速、高效 地搭建起一个多元化、全球化的投研大平台。 n 在业务架构上，集团采取独立赋能、协同互补的管理哲学，形成了特色鲜明的多元化产品矩阵。 旗下各资管子公司保持高度经营与投研自主性，专注于自身核心策略，而母公司则通过统一的智 库中台、科技平台与全球分销网络提供强力支持，确 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月21日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-11-20 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3931.05 | 12980.81 | 4564.94 | 14002.72 | 3755.39 | 1328.18 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.39 | -0.75 | -0.50 | -0.79 | -1.08 | -1.23 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7113.41 | 9968.47 | 4150.64 | 3522.91 | 4451.80 | 437.44 | 【常规内容】 行业与公司 纺服行业快评:纺织服装海外跟踪系列六十七-亚玛芬三季度业绩增长强 劲，管理层再次上调全年指引 传媒互联网周报：Marble 3D 世界模型公测，持续看好板块机会 医药行业专题:海外制药企业 2025Q3 业绩回顾——MNC 的产品在美国市 场放量有多快？ 拼多多(PDD.O) 海外公 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月20日 金融工程日报 A 股高开低走，封板率创近一个月新低 市场表现：今日(20251120) 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中上证 50 指数表现较好，板块指数中上证综指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 价值指 数表现较好。建材、银行、通信、房地产、家电行业表现较好，煤炭、电新、 石油石化、消费者服务、商贸零售行业表现较差。房屋租赁、央企银行、参 股药明康德、玻璃纤维、锂矿等概念表现较好，锂电电解液、水产、有机硅、 冰雪旅游、核废水等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：今日收盘时有 49 只股票涨停，有 25 只股票跌停。昨日涨停股票 今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，高开低走，收盘收益为-0.83%，昨日跌停股 票今日收盘收益为-4.14%。今日封板率 51%，较前日下降 17%，连板率 25%， 较前日下降 4%，封板率创近一个月新低。 市场资金流向：截至 20251119 两融余额为 24979 亿元，其中融资余额 24803 亿元，融券余额 176 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融交易占市 场成交额比重为 9.7%。 折溢价：20251119 当日 ETF 溢价较多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [2] Core Insights - Eli Lilly's revenue increased by 52% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by GLP-1 drugs, with Tirzepatide's quarterly revenue exceeding $10 billion for the first time, showing a 131% year-on-year growth [4] - Novo Nordisk faced intensified competition in the weight loss drug market, leading to a modest revenue growth of 1% for Ozempic and 6% for Wegovy in Q3 2025, prompting a downward revision of its annual performance guidance [4] - A total of 11 out of 16 companies in the report raised their revenue and/or net profit/EPS forecasts for the year, primarily due to better-than-expected sales of new products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2025 Performance Review - Eli Lilly's Q3 revenue reached $17.6 billion, with a 62% increase in sales volume, while net prices decreased by 10% [12] - Novo Nordisk's sales revenue for Q3 was 75 billion Danish Kroner, with a net profit decline of 27% [13] - JNJ's pharmaceutical segment achieved revenue of $15.6 billion, with significant contributions from oncology and neurology products [14] - AbbVie reported global sales of $15.8 billion, with notable growth in immunology and neurology sectors [15] - Gilead's revenue for Q3 was $7.3 billion, with a 4% increase in HIV product sales [16] 2. MNC Product Performance in the U.S. Market - The median time for MNC products to reach peak sales in the U.S. market is approximately 8 years, with first-in-class (FIC) products achieving this in about 7 years [4] 3. Revenue and Guidance Adjustments - Eli Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance from $60-62 billion to $63-63.5 billion [12] - Novo Nordisk revised its revenue growth forecast down from 8%-14% to 8%-11% [13] - JNJ increased its full-year revenue guidance from $93.2-93.6 billion to $93.5-93.9 billion [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry, indicating expectations for better performance compared to the market index [5][40]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 2.31% during the week of November 10 to November 16, underperforming against the CSI 300 index (-0.66%) and the ChiNext index (-1.68%) [1][12]. - Key companies showing positive performance included Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Sanwei Communication, Xinhua Du, and Tianxia Show, while companies like Yue Media, Kunlun Wanwei, Rongxin Culture, and Kaiying Network faced significant declines [1][12]. - The report highlights the launch of Marble 3D by World Labs, which allows the creation of navigable 3D virtual worlds from various input formats, marking a significant advancement in AI-generated content [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and policy shifts in the media sector, recommending companies such as Mango TV, Bilibili, Light Media, and Huace Film & TV for potential investment opportunities [4][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance ranked 23rd among all sectors, with a notable decline of 2.31% [1][12][14]. - The top three films for the week generated a total box office of 5.81 billion yuan, with "The Life of Langlang" leading at 3.38 billion yuan, accounting for 58.2% of the total [3][19]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the gaming and IP sectors, particularly Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite, as well as IP brands like Pop Mart [4][35]. - For media companies, it suggests monitoring potential improvements in advertising spending as the economy stabilizes, with a focus on companies like Focus Media and Bilibili [4][35]. AI and Content Development - The report discusses the launch of the Kosong AI framework, which enhances the development of intelligent applications, and the improvements in the 2.5 Turbo model for video generation [2][17]. - It highlights the potential for AI applications in various sectors, including animation, marketing, education, e-commerce, and social media [4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media industry [5][35][40]. Core Views - The media industry experienced a decline of 2.31%, underperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.66%) and the ChiNext Index (-1.68%) during the week of November 10 to November 16 [1][12]. - Key companies showing positive performance include Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Sanwei Communication, Xinhua Du, and Tianxia Show, while companies like Yue Media, Kunlun Wanwei, Rongxin Culture, and Kaiying Network faced significant declines [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economic bottoming out and potential policy shifts, particularly in AI applications and content production [4][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 23rd in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with a decline of 2.31% [1][12][14]. - The top three films for the week generated a total box office of 5.81 billion yuan, with "Lifelong Life" leading at 3.38 billion yuan (58.2% market share) [3][19]. Key Developments - The launch of Marble 3D by World Labs allows for the creation of navigable 3D virtual worlds from various input formats, marking a significant advancement in AI-generated content [2][16]. - The introduction of the new "head and tail frame" feature in the Keling 2.5 Turbo model enhances the generation quality of AI videos, improving controllability and consistency [2][17]. - The open-source AI framework Kosong by Moonlight provides developers with efficient tools for building intelligent applications [2][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gaming sector and IP trends, recommending companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite for their strong product cycles and performance [4][35]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in media companies like Mango Super Media and Bilibili, particularly in light of improving economic conditions and policy shifts [4][35]. - AI applications are identified as a key area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in AI animation, marketing, and education [4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media industry [5][35][40]. Core Views - The media industry experienced a decline of 2.31%, underperforming both the CSI 300 (-0.66%) and the ChiNext Index (-1.68%) during the week of November 10 to November 16 [1][12]. - Key companies showing positive performance include Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Sanwei Communication, Xinhua Dou, and Tianxia Show, while companies like Yue Media, Kunlun Wanwei, Rongxin Culture, and Kaiying Network faced significant declines [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economic bottom and potential policy shifts, particularly in AI applications and content creation [4][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector ranked 23rd in terms of weekly performance among all sectors, with a notable decline of 2.31% [1][12][14]. - The top three films for the week generated a total box office of 581 million yuan, with "The Life of Langlang" leading at 338 million yuan, accounting for 58.2% of the total [3][19]. Key Developments - The launch of Marble 3D by World Labs allows for the creation of navigable 3D virtual worlds from various input formats, marking a significant advancement in AI-generated content [2][16]. - The introduction of the new "head and tail frame" feature in the Keling 2.5 Turbo model enhances the generation quality of AI videos, improving controllability and consistency [2][17]. - The open-source AI framework Kosong by Moonlight provides developers with efficient tools for building intelligent applications [2][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gaming sector and IP trends, recommending companies like Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite for their potential in the current market cycle [4][35]. - It highlights the importance of content policy shifts and AI application opportunities, recommending platforms like Mango Super Media and Bilibili, as well as content producers like Light Media and Huace Film [4][35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that Amer Sports has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue and profit exceeding previous guidance and Bloomberg consensus expectations. The growth is driven by the Salomon brand, DTC channels, and strong performance in Greater China and the Asia-Pacific region. Management has raised the full-year revenue, profit margin, and EPS guidance [2][3][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Amer Sports reported a revenue increase of 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion, with adjusted net profit rising 161% to $185 million. The adjusted gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 57.9%, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations [2][7][8]. - Revenue growth was driven by all three business segments, with Technical Apparel up 31%, Outdoor Performance up 36%, and Ball & Racquet up 16%. The Greater China region saw a revenue increase of 47% [2][18]. Management Guidance - Management has raised the full-year revenue growth forecast to 23-24%, with an expected contribution of 100 basis points from exchange rates. The adjusted gross margin is now projected to be around 58%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be between 12.5% and 12.7% [32][33]. Business Segment Performance - Technical Apparel: Revenue increased by 31% (fixed exchange rate +32%), driven by strong performance in all regions and channels, particularly in women's products [15]. - Outdoor Performance: Revenue grew by 36% (fixed exchange rate +32%), with significant contributions from footwear and apparel. The DTC channel saw a 67% increase [16]. - Ball & Racquet: Revenue rose by 16% (fixed exchange rate +16%), primarily driven by strong sales in apparel and the tennis segment [17]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth by region: Greater China +47%, Asia-Pacific +54%, North America +12%, and EMEA +23%. All business lines performed well across these regions [18]. Channel Performance - DTC channel revenue increased by 51% to $720 million, accounting for 41% of total revenue, while wholesale revenue grew by 18% [18].