Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (09987.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company has maintained positive same-store sales growth for three consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in store expansion in 2026 [4][21]. - For Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of $140 million, up 21.7% [9][10]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, driven by innovations in delivery and product offerings, with a forecasted net increase of over 1,900 stores in 2026 [3][20]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the operating profit was $187 million, reflecting a 23.8% increase year-on-year, with an EPS of $0.40 [9][10]. - The KFC division generated $2.125 billion in revenue, up 8.75%, while the Pizza Hut division saw revenue of $540 million, a 5.9% increase [9][10]. - The overall same-store sales growth was 3%, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving 3% and 1% growth respectively [10][11]. Store Expansion - The company added 587 new stores in Q4 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores by the end of the year, with KFC and Pizza Hut having 12,997 and 4,168 stores respectively [11][20]. - The proportion of franchised stores is increasing, with KFC and Pizza Hut's franchise store ratios reaching 15% and 8% by the end of 2025 [11][20]. Cost and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, driven by revenue leverage [3][18]. - Labor costs accounted for approximately 29.3% of total costs, reflecting a 1.1 percentage point increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising delivery costs [3][18]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a net profit of $1.019 billion in 2026, with projections for 2027 and 2028 at $1.106 billion and $1.170 billion respectively [5][21]. - The anticipated shareholder return for 2026 is approximately $1.5 billion, with expected annual returns of $900 million to over $1 billion for 2027-2028 [3][20].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 2026年02月05日 北交所 2026 年 01 月月报 优于大市 一级市场吐故纳新，新股市场冻结资金破万亿 本月北交所股票市场成交活跃度显著上升，两融活跃度比上月进一步提升。 本月北交所新增上市公司 5 家，为美德乐（920119.BJ）、农大科技 （920159.BJ））、国亮新材（920076.BJ）、爱舍伦（920050.BJ）、 科马材料（920086.BJ），退市 1 家（ST 广道），合计新增上市公司 4 家。北交所上市公司总数为 292 家，总市值为 9363.02 亿元，流通市值 为 5803.64 亿元，环比分别上升 7.7%和 10.3%。 流动性和市场成交活跃度方面，本月北交所股票成交活跃度显著上升， 单月成交数量和成交金额为 245.24 亿股和 6077.23 亿元，成交量环比 上升 26.8%，成交金额环比上升 38.6%。两融方面，北交所 1 月两融余 额比上月增加，日均值 88.31 亿元，环比变化+14.10%。 估值方面，截至 1 月 30 日，北证 50 指数市盈率（PE-TTM）为 45.96 倍， 处于近两年 60.46% ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月05日 宏观解读报告 经济实现质量提升——深圳市 2025 年经济数据跟踪与解读 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 薛冰 | 0755-81982126 | xuebing1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524060002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 摘要： 深圳市 2025 年经济稳中有进，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。2025 年，深圳地区生产总值增长 5.5%， 达到预期增长目标；对外贸易增长 1.4%，出口受 2024 年高基数的影响有所下降，进口持续增长；工业生 产方面，工业增加值保持增长，增速高于广东省水平；投资方面，固定资产投资受房地产开发投资影响有 所下降，增速低于广东省水平；消费方面，社会消费品零售总额平稳增长，占广东省比例有所提升；金融 方面，金融机构存、贷款余额增长快速提升；价格方面，居民消费价格同比增长 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月03日 2026年02月05日 宏观解读报告 经济实现质量提升——深圳市 2025 年经济数据跟踪与解读 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 薛冰 | 0755-81982126 | xuebing1@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524060002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 摘要： 深圳市 2025 年经济稳中有进，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。2025 年，深圳地区生产总值增长 5.5%， 达到预期增长目标；对外贸易增长 1.4%，出口受 2024 年高基数的影响有所下降，进口持续增长；工业生 产方面，工业增加值保持增长，增速高于广东省水平；投资方面，固定资产投资受房地产开发投资影响有 所下降，增速低于广东省水平；消费方面，社会消费品零售总额平稳增长，占广东省比例有所提升；金融 方面，金融机构存、贷款余额增长快速提升；价格方面，居民消费价格同比增长 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A 股盈利望增长约 10%。③结构上，26 年科技及高端制造或仍维持较明显 增长，此外 A 股企业盈利的点状改善有望往其他行业扩散，例如消费地产。 25 年 A 股上市公司盈利已在企稳，其主因成本压降，内生性动能仍偏弱。 从整体情况看，全部 A 股盈利于 25 年确认企稳回升趋势。同时，全部 A 股 净资产收益率自 22 年以来首次出现企稳。剔除金融两油企业后，其复苏改 善更为明显，ROE 同样边际企稳。从盈利回升的驱动看，这主要源自成本压 降，内生性动能或仍偏弱。拆分净利润增速看，动力或主要来自于整体企业 降费增效，销售毛利率同比仍承压，净利率同比上行主因企业控费增效；其 收入端贡献相对有限，整体复苏节奏仍偏慢。从 ROE 拆分看，其企稳主因净 利润率回升，但上市公司扩表意 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 策略专题研究 26 年 A 股业绩亮点有哪些？——2026 年牛市展望系列 4 核心观点 策略研究·策略专题 | 证券分析师：吴信坤 | 证券分析师：余培仪 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-61761046 | 021-61761040 | | | wuxinkun@guosen.com.cn | yupeiyi@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525120001 | S0980526010001 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 8526.31/3.18 | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | 3311.51/3.38 | | AH 股价差指数 | | 119.27 | | A 股总/流通市值 (万亿元) | | 101.97/93.33 | | 市场走势 | | | 核心结论：①25 年 A 股盈利边际企稳，主要动力源于整体企业的降本、以及 上市公司层面新经济的拉动已超过老经济的拖累。②宏微观基本面出现脱 钩，意味着传统盈利预测模型效果阶段性下降，定量模型显示中性假设下 26 年 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has seen a significant increase in trading activity, with a notable rise in both transaction volume and value [1][20] - The total number of listed companies on the BSE reached 292, with a total market capitalization of 936.30 billion and a circulating market value of 58.04 billion, reflecting increases of 7.7% and 10.3% respectively [1][13] - The BSE's new stock market has attracted over 1 trillion in frozen funds, indicating strong market interest [3] Market Overview - In January 2026, the BSE's trading volume was 24.52 billion shares, with a transaction value of 607.72 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of 26.8% in volume and 38.6% in value [1][16] - The average daily margin financing balance increased to 8.83 billion, up 14.1% from the previous month [23] Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, the PE ratio of the BSE 50 Index was 45.96, placing it at the 60.46th percentile over the past two years, while the PB ratio was 9.50, at the 91.10th percentile [25][26] - The dividend yield stood at 0.72, at the 18.09th percentile over the same period [25] Industry Performance - The BSE 50 Index experienced a monthly increase of 6.33%, while the specialized index rose by 6.06% [32] - Most sectors, except for the automotive industry, saw positive returns, with significant gains in media, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, public utilities, and agriculture [37][42] New Listings - Five new companies were listed on the BSE this month, including Meidele (920119.BJ), Nongda Technology (920159.BJ), Guoliang New Materials (920076.BJ), Aishalen (920050.BJ), and Kema Materials (920086.BJ) [1][3][13] Policy and Events - The BSE is characterized by a dual approach of "strict regulation" and "promoting activity," as evidenced by the recent delisting of ST Guandao and the strong market appeal indicated by the frozen funds exceeding 1 trillion [3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 农化行业：2026 年 1 月月度观察 优于大市 钾肥合同价上涨，储能拉动磷矿需求，草铵膦将取消出口退税 储能需求持续向好，磷酸铁锂价格持续上涨。据百川盈孚，目前我国磷 酸铁锂产能达 594.5 万吨/年，2025 年产量 382 万吨，同比增长 48.59%， 截至 2026 年 1 月底，磷酸铁锂市场价格约 5.6 万元/吨，环比+7%，较 2025 年 6 月底最低价 3.2 万元/吨上涨 75%。受下游储能及动力电池需 求向好拉动，磷酸铁/锂、六氟磷酸锂等含磷新能源材料需求显著提升， 叠加供给端行业反内卷工作推进，产品价格持续上涨。 在全球储能产业加速扩张的背景下，磷酸铁锂对上游磷资源的需求持续 提升。假设全球储能电池出货量在 2025-2027 年分别增至 600/800/983 GWh，对应磷矿石需求将升至 600/800/983 万吨，占我国磷矿石预测产 量比重分别达到 4.7%/5.9%/7.0%；储能级磷酸铁对原料纯度要求高（低 铁、低镁、低重金属），实际可适配的高品位磷矿资源远比总量稀缺， 叠加动力电池的持续贡献，磷资源在新能源电池领域的消费比重将 ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing overcapacity and disorderly competition, marking a significant shift in the construction of a unified national market [6][8] - The policy evolution is divided into three phases, with the current phase focusing on systematic implementation to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for administrative coordination to break down local protection and industry barriers, while also advocating for a long-term focus on reasonable profit margins for enterprises [8][9] Industry and Company - The electronic industry report highlights the rapid emergence of AI applications, with a focus on the computing power chain becoming a central investment theme [16] - The automotive industry report notes that the penetration rate of NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) in urban areas has exceeded 20%, with significant investments in autonomous driving technologies [23][24] - The agricultural sector report indicates a rise in potassium fertilizer contract prices and increased demand for phosphate rock driven by energy storage needs [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong shows signs of recovery, with a 21% increase in private residential transaction volume in 2025, marking the second-highest level since 2013 [33][34] - The report on public REITs indicates a continued divergence in performance across different asset types, with a strong long-term allocation value expected as the market matures [10][11] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support and strong fundamentals, such as affordable housing and new infrastructure related to digital economy upgrades [10][11] - In the automotive sector, recommendations include investing in companies with strong new product cycles and those involved in intelligent driving technologies [26][29] - The report advises on maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, particularly in light of potential market volatility and economic recovery signals [12][13]