证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 宏观经济周报 外贸高增与内需隐忧 风险提示：海外市场动荡，存在不确定性。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | --- | | 0755-22940456 | 0755-81982035 | | lizn@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980516060001 | S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师：王奕群 | 证券分析师：董德志 | | 0755-81982462 | 021-60933158 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cndongdz@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980525110002 | S0980513100001 | | 基础数据 | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | -3.80 | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | -3.80 | | --- | --- | | 社零总额当月同比 | 0.90 | | 出口当月同比 | 39.60 | | M2 | 9.00 | 市场走势 本周公布的 1- ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 宏观经济专题研究 全球变局（3）：70 年代通胀"M 顶"能否再现？ 本轮能源冲击难以复制 70 年代通胀"M 顶"路径。近期中东局势升温，市场 开始担忧美国通胀是否会重演 70 年代的"M 顶"形态。与当时相比，美国当 前的能源依赖度、供给扰动性质以及美国通胀形成机制均已发生明显变化。 因此我们认为本轮石油价格的快速上行应为阶段性扰动，难以成为推动通胀 的结构性动因，主要基于三点判断。 （1）美国由"进口国"转为"输出国"。依托水平钻井与水力压裂技术， 美国页岩油产量自在 2016 年前后超过常规原油产量。页岩油开发周期通常 仅 6-12 个月，这使美国能源供给具备更强的短期调节能力。受此推动，美 国在 2020 年变为石油净出口国，对外依赖显著下降。尽管当前油价出现阶 段性上行，但美国风险敞口显著收缩，油价对通胀的影响弹性系数显著缩小。 （2）本轮能源冲击的性质侧重"运输风险"而非"供给冲击"。1979 年伊 朗革命及随后爆发的两伊战争曾直接导致主要产油国大幅减产，全球石油供 给一度减少约 400 万桶/日，属于典型的供给冲击。而当前局势更多体现为 运输风险上升， ...

Core Conclusions - The recent surge in strategic resource products is driven by concerns over AI substitution and escalating geopolitical conflicts, with frequent industry rotations observed this week, particularly in petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals [1] - The market for strategic resource products is supported not only by short-term shocks but also by long-term supply-demand changes that elevate price levels, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend in the medium term [1][2] - Despite short-term market fluctuations, the overall bullish market trend for the year remains intact, with a focus on strategic resources under safety considerations and domestic demand-related assets, while AI technology remains a key theme for the medium term [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market for strategic resource products is influenced by supply constraints and rigid demand, which are driving price levels higher in the medium to long term [2][14] - Long-term capital expenditure is insufficient, resource nationalism is rising, and operational risks are increasing, all of which constrain the supply of strategic resource products [16] - The demand for strategic resources is being shaped by industrial trends and macro geopolitical changes, with AI and new energy sectors accelerating demand growth [17] Geopolitical Influences - The worsening geopolitical situation in the Middle East has catalyzed a rapid increase in oil prices, further stimulating the market for strategic resource products [13][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to suppress market risk appetite until the situation clarifies, although the underlying logic driving the stock market is anticipated to prevail in the medium term [25][26] Investment Focus - There is a strong emphasis on strategic resource products and a focus on domestic demand-related assets, with AI technology remaining a central theme for medium-term investments [3][27] - The report highlights the importance of safety considerations in the current complex external environment, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand likely to benefit undervalued assets in real estate and consumer sectors [27] - The report suggests that the AI technology sector will continue to evolve, with a focus on applications and upstream energy and power sectors, as global energy supply tightens [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The rapid iteration of large models is enhancing application capabilities, with global AI development leading to significant improvements in knowledge Q&A, mathematics, and programming, surpassing human-level performance in various tasks [2][4] - The increase in token usage is elevating the ranking of domestic models, with notable growth in API call volumes for Chinese models, indicating improved performance and cost-effectiveness [2][12] - AI applications are driving growth in the cloud market, leading to an expansion in IDC demand, as domestic internet and cloud companies lag behind their overseas counterparts in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Iteration of Large Models - The global large model industry has transitioned from annual to quarterly or even monthly iterations since 2025, with leading companies significantly reducing their model update cycles [11] - Domestic companies like Deepseek and ByteDance are also accelerating their model iterations, enhancing their capabilities and performance [11][12] 2. Increase in Token Usage and Domestic Model Ranking - The launch of viral AI applications like OpenClaw has spurred global AI application growth, leading to record-high token consumption [2] - By March 2026, over 50% of the top ten models on Openrouter were domestic, reflecting a significant rise in the performance and market acceptance of Chinese models [2] 3. AI Applications Driving Cloud Market Growth - The surge in domestic model usage is increasing the demand for local data centers, with a notable gap in capital expenditure on AI infrastructure compared to international firms [2] - As AI applications commercialize and grow rapidly, cloud services are becoming the primary platform for these applications, resulting in increased IaaS demand [2][3]

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 多资产周报 债市考验 1.8 库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44684 万吨，较上周上升 46789 万吨； 螺纹钢库存为 294 万吨，较上周上升 567 万吨；阴极铜库存为 145342 吨，较上周上升 391529 吨；电解铝库存为 58 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 资金行为方面，最新一周美元多头持仓 16384 张，较上周上升 1323 张， 空头持仓 22266 张，较上周上升 2216 张；黄金 ETF 规模 3445 万盎司， 较上周下降 5 万盎司。 核心观点 经济研究·宏观周报 | 证券分析师：邵兴宇 | 证券分析师：田地 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005483 | 0755-81982035 | | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cntiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980523070001 | S0980524090003 | 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 债市考验 1.8。近期国内外市场关于滞胀 ...

资讯日报：伊朗新领袖释放强硬信号 股票市场概览 港股市场表现 美股市场表现 2026 年 3 月 13 日 资讯日报 海外市场主要股市上日表现 | 指数 | 收盘价 | 日常跌 | 周涨跌 | 年初至今 湖铁 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | (%) | | | | | | | (%) | | 恒生指数 | 25.717 | (0.70) | (0.16) | 0.34 | | 恒生科技 | 5.028 | (0.54) | 1.62 | (8.85) | | 恒生国企 | 8.700 | (0.06) | 0.83 | (2.40) | | ┣证指数 | 4.129 | (0.10) | 0.12 | 4.04 | | 日经225 | 55,025 | (1.04) | (2.10) | 8.17 | | 新加坡海峡 | 4.864 | (0.170 | 0.15 | 0.00 | | 标普500 | 6.776 | (1.52) | (1.00) | (2.53) | | 纳斯达克 | 22,716 | (1.78) | (0.34) | (4.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from March 9, 2026, to March 13, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -0.28%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 2.49%, the highest. By sector, the median return of cyclical ETFs was -0.12%, the smallest decline. By theme, the median return of new energy vehicle ETFs was 5.01%, the highest [1][12]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 8.649 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 32.72 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the least net redemption, at 598 million yuan. By sector, technology ETFs had the most net subscriptions, at 5.178 billion yuan. By theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions, at 4.572 billion yuan [2][28][33]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, 7 ETFs will be issued, including Huabao CSI All-Share Household Appliances ETF, Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, etc. [5][56] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -0.28%. The median returns of ChiNext, CSI 300, A500, CSI 1000, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and STAR Market ETFs were 2.49%, 0.17%, -0.26%, -0.42%, -1.21%, -1.44%, and -1.89% respectively. The median returns of money market, bond, cross-border, and commodity ETFs were 0.02%, -0.00%, -0.73%, and -0.73% respectively [12]. - By sector, the median returns of cyclical, consumer, large financial, and technology sector ETFs were -0.12%, -0.13%, -1.41%, and -1.89% respectively. By theme, the median returns of new energy vehicle, power, and photovoltaic ETFs were 5.01%, 4.02%, and 3.55% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of military, resource, and AI ETFs were -6.86%, -4.00%, and -3.85% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.0086 trillion yuan, 981.2 billion yuan, and 726.1 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money market ETFs were relatively small, at 360.1 billion yuan and 170.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had relatively large scales, at 571.4 billion yuan and 242.7 billion yuan respectively [19]. - By sector, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 511.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 401.5 billion yuan. The scales of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively small, at 198.7 billion yuan and 192.5 billion yuan respectively. By theme, the scales of chip, resource, and securities ETFs were the highest, at 184.2 billion yuan, 141.7 billion yuan, and 136.7 billion yuan respectively [26]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 8.649 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 32.72 billion yuan. Money market ETFs had a net redemption of 2.369 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 2.354 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the least net redemption, at 598 million yuan, and its scale decreased by 1.533 billion yuan. ChiNext ETFs had the most net redemptions, at 6.204 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 3.205 billion yuan [28]. - By sector, technology ETFs had the most net subscriptions last week, at 5.178 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 7.419 billion yuan. Large financial ETFs had the most net redemptions, at 83 million yuan, and their scale decreased by 2.533 billion yuan. By theme, chip ETFs had the most net subscriptions, at 4.572 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 2.133 billion yuan. Resource ETFs had the most net redemptions, at 7.247 billion yuan, and their scale decreased by 12.551 billion yuan [31]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 80.68%, 89.93%, 97.27%, 97.69%, 63.17%, and 91.69% quantile levels respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 54.95%, 77.29%, 97.52%, 81.50%, 65.24%, and 93.59% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of STAR Market ETFs are currently at the 74.57% and 77.37% quantile levels respectively [34]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 88.93%, 23.04%, 20.48%, and 91.82% quantile levels respectively, and their price-to-book ratios were at the 94.63%, 35.14%, 23.78%, and 83.65% quantile levels respectively [37]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of photovoltaic, dividend, and military ETFs were relatively high, at 99.92%, 98.51%, and 96.45% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 99.83%, 95.71%, and 90.67% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of power ETFs increased significantly. Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the valuation quantile of ChiNext ETFs was relatively low. By sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate. By theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and securities ETFs were relatively low [42][46]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs decreased from 47.824 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.386 billion yuan, and the short selling volume increased from 2.385 billion shares in the previous week to 2.5 billion shares [47]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had relatively high average daily margin purchases, and CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [50][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [53]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, 7 ETFs will be issued, including Huabao CSI All - Share Household Appliances ETF, Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, etc. [56].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 金融工程专题研究 一键布局养殖周期拐点——中证畜牧养殖产业指数投资价值分析 一键布局养殖周期拐点 生猪养殖行业正处在周期底部的关键窗口期。自 2025 年下半年以来， 猪价持续底部震荡，产能去化加速推进。2026 年 3 月，发改委联合农 业部进一步将能繁母猪存栏目标下调至 3650 万头，政策调控趋严，产 能收缩路径明确，为 2026-2027 年猪价中枢回归至合理盈利水平奠定基 础。 中证畜牧养殖产业指数投资价值分析 中证畜牧养殖产业指数（931946.CSI）发布于 2023 年 7 月 28 日，该 指数选取畜牧产品、动物保健与育种、饲料、肉制品、乳制品行业的上 市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧养殖产业上市公司证券的整体表 现。 持仓高度集中，聚焦产业链龙头。截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，指数前十大 权重股合计占比 66.47%，其中牧原股份、温氏股份两大生猪养殖龙头 合计占比近 30%，养殖业权重占比超 54%，饲料加工占比 15.41%，产 业链代表性纯粹。指数成分股平均市值 239.67 亿元，小盘风格显著， 在周期反转阶段具备较高弹性。 估值 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 主动量化策略周报 新旧能源领涨，四大主动量化组合年内均排名主动股基前 1/4 核心观点 金融工程周报 国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪： 本周，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益-0.16%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益 0.77%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益 9.06%，相对偏股混 合型基金指数超额收益 4.53%。今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股 基中排名 23.25%分位点（865/3721）。 本周，超预期精选组合绝对收益-0.17%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 0.75%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益 11.91%，相对偏股混合型基金指 数超额收益 7.38%。今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名 12.42% 分位点（462/3721）。 本周，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益-1.18%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超 额收益-0.26%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益 11.08%，相对偏股 混合型基金指数超额收益 6.55%。今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动 股基中排名 14.59%分位点（543/3721）。 本周，成长稳健组合绝对收 ...

多因子选股周报 估值因子表现出色，四大指增组合年内超额均超 1.5% 核心观点 金融工程周报 证券研究报告 | 2026年03月14日 国信金工指数增强组合表现跟踪 因子表现监控 以沪深 300 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 EPTTM、EPTTM、EPTTM 一年分位点等因子表现较好，而单季营利同比增速、一年动量、预期净利润 环比等因子表现较差。 以中证 500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 EPTTM、单季 EP、标准化 预期外盈利等因子表现较好，而预期净利润环比、标准化预期外收入、三个 月机构覆盖等因子表现较差。 以中证 1000 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 PEG、三个月反转、预期 BP 等因子表现较好，而一年动量、单季 ROA、三个月机构覆盖等因子表现 较差。 以中证 A500 指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 EPTTM、EPTTM、三个月 反转等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月机构覆盖、预期净利润环比等因 子表现较差。 以公募重仓指数为选股空间。最近一周，预期 EPTTM、预期 PEG、三个月 反转等因子表现较好，而一年动量、三个月机构覆盖、标准化预期外收入等 因子表现较差。 公募基金指数 ...