证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 紫金矿业（601899.SH）——年报点评 优于大市 业绩表现亮眼，铜金锂三大业务板块同步快速拓展 公司发布 2025 年年报：全年实现营收 3491 亿元，同比+14.96%；实现归母 净利润 517.78 亿元，同比+61.55%；实现扣非净利润 507.24 亿元，同比 +60.05%。其中，公司于 25Q4 实现营收 949 亿元，同比+29.54%，环比+9.70%； 实现归母净利润 139.14 亿元，同比+80.86%，环比-4.52%；实现扣非净利润 165.97 亿元，同比+108.89%，环比+32.75%。公司 2025 年业绩表现亮眼。 核心矿产品产量方面：2025 年，矿产金产量 89.54 吨，同比+22.77%；矿产 铜产量 108.51 万吨，同比+1.56%。公司 2026 年产量计划：矿产金 105 吨 (+17.3%)，矿产铜 120 万吨(+10.6%)，当量碳酸锂 12 万吨(+371%)，矿产银 520 吨(+18.5%)。 核心矿产品成本方面：2025 年，公司矿产金单位营业成本为 275.24 元/克， 同比+19.34 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 基金周报 首家万亿级权益类基金代销机构诞生，15 只硬科技基金获批 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数走势出现分化，创业板指、 沪深 300、深证成指收益靠前，收益分别为 1.26%、-2.19%、-2.90%， 中证 500、中证 1000、科创 50 收益靠后，收益分别为-5.82%、-5.25%、 -4.03%。 从成交额来看，除创业板指外，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所下降。 行业方面，上周通信、银行、食品饮料收益靠前，收益分别为 1.71%、 0.32%、-0.44%，基础化工、钢铁、有色金属收益靠后，收益分别为 -9.49%、-10.03%、-11.91%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 14144 亿元，逆回购到期 17015 亿元，净公开市场投放 2871 亿元。除 5 年期和 10 年期外，不同期限的 国债利率均有所下行，利差扩大 3.56BP。 上周共上报 96 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 9 只 FOF，1 只 QDII，华安中证工程机械主题 ETF、华夏中证全指电力 公用事业 ETF、鹏华 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 阿里巴巴-SW（09988.HK） 优于大市 3QFY26 财报点评：电商表现疲软，云收入继续加速 整体表现：电商表现疲软，云收入继续加速。FY26Q3 阿里巴巴收入 2848 亿 元，yoy+2%；分业务看，中国电商集团/国际数字商业集团/云智能集团/所 有其他分别实现同比增速为 6%/4%/36%/-20%。经调 EBITA 为 234 亿元，同比 -57%，对应经调 EBITA 利润率 8.2%，主要受即时零售业务投入、千问 APP 投 入等因素影响，non-GAAP 净利润 167 亿元，yoy-67%，净利率 5.9%。本季度 公司自由现金流为 113 亿元，同比下降 71%，主要是即时零售的投入。 中国电商集团：受大盘影响电商表现疲软，即时零售 UE 持续改善。1）收入 端：FY26Q3 电商 CMR 收入同比+1%。环比降速明显，主要是货币化率提升的 基数效应显现以及大盘表现疲软（本季度实物商品网上零售额同比+2.2%）。 即时零售收入 208 亿元，同比+56%。假设日均 7400 万单情况下，对应单均 收入约 3.1 元。在即时零售业务的带动下，25 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 万国黄金集团（03939.HK）——财报点评 优于大市 金岭矿扩建 1000 万吨/年有序推进，未来成长性强 公司发布 2025 年年度业绩：全年实现营收 31.61 亿元，同比+68.5%；实现 毛利 23.48 亿元，同比+135.5%；实现归母净利润 13.55 亿元，同比+135.5%； 若不考虑递延税项影响，实现归母净利 15.04 亿元，同比+162.0%；2025 年 折算现金分红比例约为 48.2%。 核心产品产销量：2025 年，江西宜丰新庄矿选矿总量约为 110.42 万吨，H1/H2 选矿总量分别为 45.05/65.37 万吨，铜当量销量约 10304 吨，同比基本持平， H1/H2 销量分别为 4207/6097 吨。2025 年，所罗门金岭矿采矿量 335.53 万 吨，同比+23.7%，选矿量 300.15 万吨，同比+31.6%，金锭销量 2273.60 千 克，同比+44.5%，金精矿销量 5.79 万吨，同比+30.3%，两者折合金金属销 量约 2929 千克，同比+23.5%，H1/H2 销量分别为 1337/1592 千克，黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][18]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, with total revenue projected at 1.9213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.12%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 504 million yuan, up 11.61%. Excluding stock incentive expenses, net profit is expected to grow by 24% [1][3]. - The user base and value of the China Manufacturing Network have seen significant growth, with AI business revenue increasing by 117%. The main business revenue reached 1.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%, with paid member numbers growing by 8.67% to 29,793 [2][3]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, intending to distribute at least 70% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company as cash dividends from 2026 to 2028 [1][3]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025, the company is projected to have a gross margin of 79.3%, with a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The operating cash flow is expected to be 888 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 25.83% [2][4]. - The financial forecast indicates that by 2028, the company will achieve a net profit of 792 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.9, 18.5, and 16.3 for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [3][4].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 东方财富（300059.SZ） 优于大市 业绩景气向上，谋求新增长空间 2025 年财报符合预期。全年实现营收 160.86 亿元、同比+38.46%，实现归母 净利润 120.85 亿元、同比+25.75%，EPS 为 0.765 元/股，同比+25.68%。ROE （加权）为 14.03%，同比+1.39pct，主因资本市场回暖及证券业务发力。业 绩高增凸显互联网券商在市场回暖周期下的高弹性，未来核心增量看点：证 券、基金代销业务持续发力，叠加 AI 赋能落地，期待持续贡献业务增量。 未来增量空间在于如何推动流量转化，拓展财富投顾、跨境、金融科技等业 务机会。 证券业务营收高增且占比突出，但市占率表现分化。2025 年，公司证券业务 实现营收 125.35 亿元，同比+47.59%，占总营收比重达 78.02%，远高于传统 券商，为公司业绩持续贡献较大弹性。细分来看，公司股基交易额 38.46 万 亿元（双边），市占率有所下降；两融市占率小幅提升至 3.1%，年末融出资 金 808 亿元（同比+37%），进一步增厚收益；同时，公司获批上市证券做市 资质，布局北交所 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from March 16 to March 20, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -3.11%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 1.26%, the highest. By sector, the median return of consumer ETFs was -2.16%, the smallest decline. By theme, the median return of bank ETFs was 0.30%, the highest [1][12][16] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan. By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan [2][27][31] - As of last Friday, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext ETFs were relatively low among broad-based ETFs; by sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively moderate; by sub-theme, the valuation quantiles of liquor and securities ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 and consumer ETFs decreased significantly [3][34][43] - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes, securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases, and CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [4][44][50] - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge ranked top three in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [5][52][55] Summary by Relevant Catalog ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was -3.11%. The median returns of ChiNext, CSI 300, SSE 50, A500, STAR Market, CSI 1000, and CSI 500 ETFs were 1.26%, -2.17%, -2.46%, -3.16%, -3.69%, -5.21%, and -5.78% respectively. The median returns of bond, money market, cross-border, and commodity ETFs were 0.06%, 0.02%, -1.02%, and -7.93% respectively [12] - By sector, the median returns of consumer, large financial, technology, and cyclical sector ETFs among equity ETFs last week were -2.16%, -2.67%, -2.86%, and -5.39% respectively. By theme, the median returns of bank, AI, and pharmaceutical ETFs were 0.30%, -0.20%, and -1.79% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of resource, military, and robot ETFs were -10.41%, -6.23%, and -5.99% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16] ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 2.9042 trillion yuan, 961.9 billion yuan, and 725.3 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money market ETFs were relatively small, at 332.4 billion yuan and 173.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the scales of CSI 300 and A500 ETFs were relatively large, at 565.4 billion yuan and 228.9 billion yuan respectively, while the scales of STAR Market, CSI 500, ChiNext, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 169.4 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, 114.8 billion yuan, 77 billion yuan, and 43.6 billion yuan respectively [20] - By sector, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 490.9 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 350.8 billion yuan. The scales of consumer and large financial ETFs were relatively small, at 195.5 billion yuan and 189.7 billion yuan respectively. By theme, the scales of chip, securities, and resource ETFs were the highest as of last Friday, at 179.4 billion yuan, 134.7 billion yuan, and 117 billion yuan respectively [25] - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 6.963 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 107.687 billion yuan; money market ETFs had a net subscription of 3.018 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 3.033 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, CSI 300 ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.526 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 6.027 billion yuan; A500 ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.229 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 13.825 billion yuan [27] - By sector, large financial ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.479 billion yuan last week, and its scale decreased by 3.088 billion yuan; cyclical ETFs had the largest net redemption of 19.832 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 51.704 billion yuan. By theme, dividend ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.717 billion yuan last week, and its scale increased by 440 million yuan; resource ETFs had the largest net redemption of 11.516 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 25.163 billion yuan [31] ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 79.52%, 84.31%, 95.87%, 93.89%, 63.09%, and 86.85% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 50.45%, 70.69%, 96.12%, 71.26%, 65.15%, and 86.38% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of STAR Market ETFs are currently at the 74.81% and 76.14% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 300 ETF decreased significantly [34][35] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 84.31%, 23.20%, 14.95%, and 90.50% quantiles respectively, and their price-to-book ratios were at the 91.41%, 37.74%, 16.89%, and 77.37% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs decreased significantly [36] - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings quantiles of dividend, photovoltaic, and military ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 99.75%, and 95.62% respectively; the price-to-book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 99.67%, 95.71%, and 85.55% respectively [40] ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.22 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.78 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.492 billion shares in the previous week to 2.417 billion shares [44] - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases from Monday to Thursday last week, among which securities ETFs and STAR Market ETFs had higher average daily margin trading purchases [45] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Margin Trading Purchase, Billion Yuan | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 4.54 | | 159915.SZ | ChiNext ETF E Fund | Scale Index | 3.71 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 3.61 | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 2.42 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 2.19 | | 512000.SH | Brokerage ETF | Industry Index | 2.16 | | 512170.SH | Medical ETF | Theme Index | 2.11 | | 588200.SH | STAR Chip | Theme Index | 1.55 | | 512480.SH | Semiconductor | Industry Index | 1.47 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.45 | - The following table shows the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short selling volumes from Monday to Thursday last week, among which CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 500 ETFs had higher average daily short selling volumes [50] | Fund Code | Fund Name | Type, Secondary | Average Daily Short Selling Volume, 10,000 Lots | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510500.SH | 500ETF | Scale Index | 6.85 | | 512100.SH | 1000ETF | Scale Index | 6.05 | | 510300.SH | 300ETF | Scale Index | 4.82 | | 510050.SH | 50ETF | Scale Index | 3.69 | | 588000.SH | STAR 50 | Scale Index | 2.24 | | 512010.SH | Pharmaceutical ETF | Industry Index | 1.41 | | 512880.SH | Securities ETF | Industry Index | 1.31 | | 512800.SH | Bank ETF | Industry Index | 1.29 | | 563360.SH | A500 Fund | Scale Index | 1.25 | | 560010.SH | 1000 Fund | Scale Index | 1.23 | ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub-fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross-border ETFs; E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross-border ETFs; Huatai-PineBridge Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [52] - Last week, 10 ETFs were newly established, including ICBC CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Industry Theme ETF, Puyin ASSET Management SSE STAR Market Chip Design Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Construction Machinery Theme ETF, Industrial Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Tianhong ChiNext New Energy ETF, GF CSI Animal Husbandry and Aquaculture Industry ETF, Dongcai CSI Battery Theme ETF, E Fund China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, and Huaan China Securities Oil and Gas ETF. This week, 5 ETFs will be issued, including Huaxia CSI All-Share Home Appliance ETF, Penghua Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Automobile Theme ETF, Penghua CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Information Technology Comprehensive ETF, Huabao China Securities Oil and Gas ETF, and Huatai-PineBridge CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Theme ETF [55]

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 超长债周报 开年经济向好，30 年国债收益率回升至 2.3% 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周公布的 1-2 月经济数据全面向好，生产端工业增加值 回升至 6.3%，需求端固定资产投资同比由负转正，社会消费品零售总额 同比回升至 2.8%，出口同比增长 19.2%，国内经济增长动能改善，另外 中东局势多变油价继续上涨，A 股暴跌，债市下跌为主，超长债继续下 跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下降，交投非常活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 3 月 20 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 47BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，开年以来经济持续向好。我们测 算的 1-2 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 5.2%，增速较去年 12 月回升 0.5%。通 胀方面，2 月 CPI 为 1.3%，PPI 为-0.9%，通缩风险继续缓解。我们认为， 近期债市回调概率更大。首先，中东地缘冲突升级背景下原油暴涨，国 内通胀风险上升；其次，2026 年 GDP 目标定为【4.5%，5%】区间，开年 以来 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月22日 转债市场周报 偏债型转债估值明显调整 核心观点 固定收益周报 上周市场焦点（3 月 16 日-3 月 20 日） 股市方面，上周市场整体延续调整态势，主要指数震荡下行，日成交额 持续萎缩至 2-2.4 万亿区间；地缘冲突引发的通胀担忧与美联储降息预 期弱化持续压制风险偏好，科技板块波动加剧，上游资源品走势分化， 油气、煤炭等能化链在供给端扰动下表现相对坚挺，而贵金属则大幅回 调，总体看防御性板块相对抗跌。债市方面，尽管周内资金面维持均衡 宽松，在经济数据明显回升、地缘冲突推升通胀及流动性担忧等因素影 响下，债市收益率总体上行，债市全周呈现震荡偏弱格局；周五 10 年 期国债利率收于 1.83%，较前周上行 1.56bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-3.15%，价 格中位数-3.31%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-5.54%，全市场转股溢 价率与前周相比+2.71%。个券层面，宇邦（光伏焊带）、宏柏（有机硅）、 金宏（氦气）、海优（光伏胶膜）、松霖（智能家居）转债涨幅靠前； 中宠转 2（宠物食品）、嘉泽（风电）、百川转 2（精细化工）、恒逸 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月21日 2026年03月22日 亚朵（ATAT.O） 优于大市 扩张与零售驱动增长，两千好店品牌势能再进阶 酒店业务：Q4 价格同比转正，两千店阶段性战略目标达成，供应链能力持 续强化。Q4RevPAR336 元/-0.4%，ADR 426 元/+1.5%，OCC 76.1%/-1.2%；同 店 RevPAR/ADR/OCC 同比-4.0%/-0.4%/-3.0%，伴随行业供需趋势边际向好， 叠加龙头量价均衡策略与高效收益管理能力，Q4 总体价格同比已转正。同时， 公司成功达成两千好店阶段性战略目标，全年新开业酒店 488 家，年末在营 酒店达 2015 家/+24.5%，管道储备项目 779 家为后续扩张奠定基础。在此基 础上持续强化供应链能力，同时单一品牌逐步细分，中高端亚朵 4.0 升级为 "亚朵见野"，全年 RevPAR 超 430 元；高端萨和 Q4 RevPAR 突破 950 元；中 端轻居 3 系 Q4 RevPAR 同比恢复度超 110%。CRS 渠道占比 62.9%，其中企业 协议间夜占比 20.8%，私域运营优异。全年酒店业务毛利率 37.0%/+1.1p ...