农林牧渔行业周报：25年生猪养殖盈利二八法则将凸显，宠物食品和疫苗国内品牌竞争加剧

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming industry [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability in the pig farming sector will increasingly reflect a "Pareto principle" where a small number of companies will dominate profits, while others will struggle [30][31]. - The report anticipates a gradual increase in the breeding stock of sows, with the overall capacity expected to rise slowly in the coming years [28][29]. - The pet food market is experiencing intensified competition, with domestic brands facing pressure on profitability due to oversupply and increased marketing costs [33][34]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The current cycle shows that group farms are the main source of increased breeding stock capacity, while smallholders are shifting to a model focused on fattening pigs [28][29]. - The average price of pork is projected to decline slowly, with estimates for 2024 at approximately 16.8 CNY/kg and for 2025 around 14.3 CNY/kg [30][31]. - Companies with cost advantages are expected to maintain profitability, while others may face significant challenges [30][31]. Pet Sector - The domestic pet vaccine market is seeing a significant shift towards local brands, increasing competition among them [31][32]. - The pet food industry is characterized by an oversupply, leading to reduced pricing power for brands, particularly on platforms like Douyin [33][34]. - The report predicts a structural adjustment in the pet food industry over the next 2-3 years, with a focus on collaboration between brands and manufacturers [33][34]. Outdoor Apparel and Millet Economy - Short-term sales in outdoor apparel are under pressure, but long-term growth potential remains strong due to changing consumer trends [34]. - The millet economy is expected to expand gradually, driven by the rise of personalized emotional consumption among younger consumers [34].