银行行业11月金融数据点评：居民中长贷同比改善，M1增速延续回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry in China [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social financing growth is stabilizing marginally, with government bonds continuing to contribute incrementally against the backdrop of accelerated debt resolution [2][9]. - It notes that the loan growth rate is still declining, but there is a year-on-year improvement in residential medium and long-term loans [12][16]. - The M1 growth rate continues to recover, with a significant year-on-year increase in corporate deposits [18][21]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Government Bonds - In November 2024, social financing grew by 7.8% year-on-year, with an increment of 23,357 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1,197 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][9]. - The report indicates that the main drag on social financing increment was a year-on-year decrease of 5,897 billion yuan in RMB loans, attributed to weak effective demand and local debt resolution processes [9][10]. - Government bonds increased by 1,589 billion yuan year-on-year, supported by rapid implementation of replacement bonds [9][10]. Loan Growth Trends - The report states that the loan growth rate in November 2024 was 7.7%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3 percentage points, and a new RMB loan increment of 5,800 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 5,100 billion yuan [12][16]. - Residential short-term loans decreased by 964 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans increased by 669 billion yuan, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales [12][16]. M1 Growth and Corporate Deposits - M1 showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7% in November 2024, but the growth rate improved by 2.4 percentage points compared to October [18][21]. - Corporate deposits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 4,913 billion yuan, suggesting a shift of fiscal deposits towards corporate deposits following government bond issuance [21][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: 1. Improvement in risk expectations, recommending stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Ping An Bank [29][30]. 2. Cyclical stocks, with recommendations for banks such as China Merchants Bank and Jiangsu Bank [29][30]. 3. High dividend stocks, particularly state-owned banks, as the yield on government bonds is expected to decline further [29][30].