玻纤年会：关注行业自律与新兴需求

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the companies is "Buy" for China Jushi (600176 CH), Changhai Co., Ltd. (300196 CH), and China National Materials (002080 CH) with target prices of 15.20, 15.84, and 15.20 respectively [2][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the fiberglass industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, with industry self-discipline becoming a consensus among enterprises. The demand in the wind power sector is expected to continue growing rapidly, while new application areas such as marine and photovoltaic are anticipated to contribute additional demand [2][3][5]. Supply Side Summary - The growth rate of fiberglass production capacity has slowed down, with a cumulative production capacity of 7.818 million tons as of November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The industry has seen a reduction in production lines, with 15 lines shut down since 2023, totaling a capacity of 1.01 million tons. This self-discipline is expected to promote healthy competition and high-quality development within the industry [3][4]. Export and Import Summary - As of October 2024, the export volume of fiberglass and products reached 1.788 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%. However, the export growth rate has slowed since Q3, with a significant drop in September. The reduction in export tax rebate from 13% to 9% is expected to impact short-term profitability but may encourage companies to enhance product competitiveness in the long term [4]. Demand Side Summary - The demand for wind power fiberglass is projected to increase, with new installations expected to reach 82 GW in 2024 and 88 GW in 2025. The price recovery of wind power fiberglass products by 15%-20% is anticipated to support profitability improvements for fiberglass companies [5][6]. - New application areas such as marine development and photovoltaic sectors are expected to expand, with projected orders for fiberglass composite materials in photovoltaic frames reaching 4 GW in 2024. This diversification is seen as crucial for the long-term growth of the industry [6].