债市策略思考：以终局思维看本轮债市跨年行情

Group 1: Market Analysis - The long-term central level for the 10-year government bond yield is estimated to be around 1.8%[3] - Historical analysis of the US monetary easing periods shows that the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by 100-150 basis points (BP) during such times, suggesting a potential long-term yield range of 1.5%-2.0% for China's 10-year bonds[3][23] - Recent political meetings have reinforced the certainty of monetary easing, with a high probability of three interest rate cuts in 2025, potentially lowering the 7-day OMO rate to 0.9%[4][28] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current cross-year market trend is expected to continue, and investors are advised not to take profits too early[5] - The 10-year government bond yield may drop below 1.5%, indicating that the recent market movements have exceeded expectations[5][29] - Factors such as potential reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and returning refinancing funds are expected to create demand in the bond market[5][29] Group 3: Risk Factors - There is a risk of unexpected changes in macroeconomic policies that could alter asset pricing logic, leading to market adjustments[6][51] - Institutional behaviors may converge and create negative feedback loops, potentially causing further market volatility[6][51]