Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25bps to the range of [4.25%, 4.5%] in December 2024[1] - The new dot plot may raise the 2025 policy rate guidance by 25-50bps, with the median expected to be [3.5%, 3.75%][2] - There is a 96.9% probability from traders that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps in December[2] Economic Growth Projections - The GDPNow model predicts a +3.33% growth rate for the US GDP in Q4 2024[2] - The New York Fed's Nowcasting model has adjusted the Q4 2024 GDP forecast down to +1.85%[2] Inflation Trends - December 2024 CPI is projected to show a month-on-month increase of +0.38% and a year-on-year increase of +2.86%[3] - Core CPI is expected to rise by +0.27% month-on-month and +3.28% year-on-year[3] Political Factors - There is a 74% probability that Trump will execute an immigration policy on his first day in office[4] - The probability of Trump imposing large tariffs within the first six months is estimated at 36%[4]
海外周报20241215：12月FOMC前瞻：降息25bps，预期指引更鹰派
Soochow Securities·2024-12-15 06:10