2024年11月金融数据点评：对数据多一些乐观，对市场多一些谨慎

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Trends - In November, M2 growth rate declined, while M1's decrease continued to narrow, with social financing growth remaining stable[4] - New loans in November amounted to CNY 23,357 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 5,100 billion[17] - The balance of RMB loans increased by 7.7% year-on-year as of the end of November, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the end of October[19] Group 2: Real Estate and Debt Management - Real estate sales showed a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, leading to an increase in medium and long-term loans for residents by CNY 3,000 billion, up CNY 669 billion year-on-year[20] - Debt management measures are improving corporate cash flow, with a reduction in existing debt potentially leading to underestimation of new loans[21] - The issuance of special bonds has supported social financing, with government bond net financing reaching CNY 13,101 billion in November, an increase of CNY 1,589 billion year-on-year[24] Group 3: M1 and M2 Adjustments - M1's year-on-year decline was 3.7%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[28] - The adjustment of M1's definition aligns better with its intended purpose, but the economic implications may be more volatile[31] - M2's growth rate fell to 7.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a significant drop in corporate time deposits[30] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The current market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping below 2%[39] - Caution is advised regarding mid-term interest rate risks, as the market may be overreacting to weak realities[39] - Key risks include unexpected changes in domestic monetary policy, shifts in major overseas economies' monetary policies, and unforeseen credit default events[40]