金融数据速评（2024.11）：发行即置换，化债≠扩张

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In November, new credit increased by 580 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year decrease of 510 billion RMB, indicating a deeper decline compared to October[2] - New corporate loans in November were only 250 billion RMB, down by 572.1 billion RMB year-on-year, with a gap of nearly 200 billion RMB compared to October[2] - The issuance of replacement bonds has led to a rapid repayment of hidden debts, with short-term loans being repaid at a slightly higher rate than medium to long-term loans[2] Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - New social financing in November was 2.3 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB, with the stock of social financing remaining flat at 7.8% year-on-year[2] - The rapid repayment of corporate loans has significantly impacted the new RMB loans, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 589.7 billion RMB[2] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1% in November, indicating a potential further decline in credit and M2 growth rates in the future[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The monetary policy is expected to shift back to a "moderately loose" direction, with anticipated rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but not a return to quantitative easing[2] - The overall credit financing demand is expected to contract, lacking momentum for a trend reversal, as policies emphasize economic transformation and risk prevention[2] - Risks include the possibility that the extent of monetary easing may be less than expected, which could impact economic recovery[2]