通信行业周报：光模块估值性价比凸显，同时关注交换机与液冷板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the communication sector, expecting significant growth in the next 3-6 months, outperforming the market by over 15% [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the tariff issues related to optical modules have raised market concerns, but the overall impact is expected to be minimal, with customers likely absorbing part of the increased costs, thus enhancing the valuation attractiveness of the sector [1][8]. - The domestic AI application market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by ByteDance's video generation model PixelDance entering beta testing, which is expected to boost demand for high-margin data center switches by 2025 [1][2]. - The report notes that the recent cooling issues with NVIDIA's NVL servers have drawn attention to liquid cooling technology, which is expected to become mainstream for next-generation servers, presenting growth opportunities for domestic manufacturers [1][3]. Summary by Sections Optical Modules - The AI-driven acceleration in optical module iterations is expected, with 1.6T optical modules projected to begin mass production in Q4 2024 and officially ramping up in Q1 2025 [2][8]. - The report indicates that overseas cloud providers are increasing capital expenditures in AI, which will benefit the optical module sector, leading to continued growth in earnings per share (EPS) [2][8]. - The tariff concerns are expected to have a limited impact, with the optical module index showing a slight increase of 0.16% this week and 2.20% for the month [8]. Servers - The investigation into NVIDIA for antitrust violations is expected to create more market space for domestic AI chips and servers, with Huawei's AI server updates in 2025 likely to further expand market demand [2][10]. - The global AI server market is projected to reach $58.8 billion by 2024, with NVIDIA's next-generation GB200 series servers expected to benefit domestic manufacturers [10][15]. Switches - The report predicts that the global switch market will reach $43.867 billion by 2025, with a significant increase in the adoption of high-speed switches [15]. - The transition to 1.6T switches is expected to enhance product pricing and profit margins, driving rapid industry growth [3][15]. Liquid Cooling - The report emphasizes the growing importance of liquid cooling technology in the AI sector, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 45.8% for the liquid cooling server market in China from 2023 to 2028 [3][15]. - The increasing power density in data centers is expected to drive the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, with significant growth opportunities for related component suppliers starting in 2025 [3][15]. Core Data Updates - In October, the three major telecom operators reported revenues of 162.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, with emerging business revenues growing by 6.77% [16][30]. - The export data for optical modules in October showed a year-on-year increase of 50.21% and a cumulative increase of 68.21% for the first ten months of the year, indicating strong demand from overseas cloud providers [30][30].