银行：社融增速筑底，M1增速回升

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a November increase of 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan. The total social financing stock at the end of November grew by 7.8% year-on-year, consistent with the end of October [1] - Direct financing, driven by government bonds, has positively supported the increase in social financing, with 1.59 trillion yuan added in November, a year-on-year increase of 269.7 billion yuan [1] - The report anticipates a rebound in credit demand due to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to boost credit demand in the coming months [5] Summary by Sections Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan. The structure of new social financing shows that direct financing, particularly from government bonds, has provided positive support [1] - The total social financing stock at the end of November was 7.8% higher than the previous year, maintaining the same growth rate as the end of October [1] Credit Demand - Corporate credit demand has contracted, with new corporate loans of 250 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion yuan. The demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises has also decreased [2] - However, there is a marginal improvement in the demand for residential medium to long-term loans, with new loans of 210 billion yuan, supported by recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] M1 and M2 Growth - The M1 and M2 growth rates in November were -3.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with M1 growth rebounding due to increased corporate deposits, which rose by 740 billion yuan year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued and low-positioned stocks in the banking sector, particularly Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and others, as they are expected to perform well in the upcoming recovery phase of the economy [5]