大宗&贵金属周报：成本高企再致减产，国内政策利好铝价表现

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for copper, aluminum, and gold, indicating potential investment opportunities in companies with resource guarantees [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a tightening supply situation for copper, with expectations of continued support for copper prices due to strong demand from the renewable energy sector [2][3]. - For aluminum, the report notes a significant supply reduction due to high costs and maintenance, with a projected increase in demand driven by sectors like new energy vehicles and high-voltage power transmission [3][4]. - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical factors, central bank purchases, and inflation expectations, with a forecasted price range of $2600-$2700 per ounce by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview & Investment Recommendations - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.01% and non-ferrous metals down 0.84% during the week [1][18]. - Key stocks that performed well include Yitong New Materials, Guocheng Mining, and Jintian Copper [1][18]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 0.40% to $9057 per ton, while SHFE copper price increased by 0.08% to 74,790 yuan per ton [2][31]. - Global copper inventory decreased by 20,800 tons to 514,100 tons, with domestic inventory dropping by 24,800 tons [2][31]. - Supply disruptions are expected from overseas mines, particularly in Chile, and domestic production is anticipated to face challenges due to raw material shortages [2][31]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with mining guarantees such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jinchuan Group, and Zijin Mining [2][31]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 0.29% to $2615 per ton, and SHFE aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20,350 yuan per ton [3][39]. - Global aluminum inventory decreased by 15,300 tons to 1,443,900 tons, with domestic aluminum ingot and rod inventory down by 5,700 tons [3][39]. - The report indicates that high production costs and maintenance are leading to reduced supply, while demand is expected to grow due to new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industries [3][39]. - Companies to watch include China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Shenhuo Co. [3][39]. Gold - COMEX gold price rose by 0.41% to $2665.90 per ounce, with strong demand from central banks and geopolitical tensions supporting prices [4][34]. - The report anticipates gold prices could reach $3000 per ounce, driven by fiscal deficits and inflation expectations [4][34]. - Recommended companies include Zhongjin Gold and others involved in gold production [4][34].