2024年11月社融数据点评：直接融资持续支撑社融，化债及购房推升M1

Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Data - As of the end of November, the total social financing stock increased by 7.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the end of October[1] - In November, the new social financing scale was 23,357 billion RMB, lower than market expectations and 1,197 billion RMB less than the same period last year, marking a continuous four-month year-on-year decrease[1] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 5,223 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5,897 billion RMB, continuing a 13-month trend of year-on-year declines[1] Group 2: Direct Financing and Policy Implications - Direct financing remains a key support for social financing, with new RMB loans accounting for approximately 22.36% of the total social financing increment in November, a slight increase from the previous month but a decrease of 22.9 percentage points from the same period last year[1] - New direct financing reached 15,956 billion RMB, accounting for about 68.31% of the total social financing increment, an increase of 14.3 percentage points year-on-year[1] - The central government's macroeconomic policy for next year emphasizes "stability while seeking progress," with expectations for more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, including a potential 100 basis points reduction in reserve requirements[1] Group 3: M1 and M2 Trends - In November, M1 decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in growth[4] - M2 grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with a 0.4 percentage point decline from the previous month, suggesting a return to a stable operating range[4] - The gap between M1 and M2 was 10.8 percentage points at the end of November, showing a narrowing trend compared to the previous month[4]