海外周报：12月FOMC前瞻：降息25bps，预期指引更鹰派

Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of [4.25%, 4.5%] in December 2024[1] - The new dot plot may raise the 2025 policy rate guidance by 25-50 basis points, with the expected mode and median at [3.5%, 3.75%][2] - There is a 96.9% probability from futures traders for a 25 basis point rate cut in December[2] Economic Growth Projections - The GDPNow model predicts a +3.33% growth rate for the US GDP in Q4 2024[2] - The New York Fed's Nowcasting model has adjusted the Q4 GDP growth forecast down to +1.85%[2] - Overall, the US GDP growth remains stable despite fluctuations in economic indicators[2] Inflation Trends - December CPI is projected to show a month-on-month increase of +0.38% and a year-on-year increase of +2.86%[3] - The core CPI is expected to rise by +0.27% month-on-month and +3.28% year-on-year[3] - The rebound in inflation is attributed to low base effects and persistent inflationary pressures[3] Political and Policy Considerations - There is a 74% probability that Trump will execute an immigration deportation order on his first day in office[4] - The probability of Trump imposing large tariffs within the first six months is estimated at 36%[4] - The likelihood of Trump cutting corporate taxes again is at 50%[6]