2025年度策略系列报告“碧海潮生，日出东方”：转机何在

Macroeconomic Outlook - Domestic economy is expected to recover gradually in 2025, driven by policy support, with some industries completing supply-side clearing and exiting deflation [2] - US economic outlook is better than Europe, with a weak upward inventory cycle, but uncertainties remain, including potential tariff impacts and Japan's interest rate hike falling short of expectations [2] - Key to A-share fundamentals lies in demand improvement, with signals to watch including PPI, housing prices, and M1 growth [2] - More proactive fiscal policies are needed alongside monetary easing to stimulate demand, as China's fiscal policy still has room for expansion compared to developed countries [2] Export and Performance - Export expectations may diverge in May, with two scenarios: weaker-than-expected US tariffs leading to export chain reversal, or stronger-than-expected tariffs shifting focus to non-US markets [3] - Full A-share profit growth is expected to remain at 5-10% in 2024-2025, with bottom reversal, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors as key performers [3] - Industries with accelerating performance and low valuations in 2024 are mainly in bottom reversal stages, while 2025 will see more upstream and manufacturing sectors [3] Capital Flows - Insurance capital is expected to be the main source of incremental funds for A-shares in 2025, bringing over 560 billion yuan [4] - IPO subscription returns rebounded in August and surged rapidly in October, with a 649% increase in October [4] - ETF net buying in October-November benefited from A500ETF issuance, but excluding that, November saw net selling [4] - Funds underweighted and increased positions in non-bank financials in Q3 2024, while overweighing but reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and defense [4] Industry Policies - The government places high importance on high-end manufacturing, green energy, new energy, and intelligent manufacturing industries [8] - With the decline of the land-based economic model, new industries need to be cultivated to form new economies of scale [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on policy intensity and signals of demand and economic recovery, as fundamental improvement may drive a new index-level rally in A-shares [5] - Pay attention to export expectations in May, with two scenarios depending on US tariff actions [5] - Bottom reversal, manufacturing, and cyclical sectors are expected to be top performers in the next two years [5] - Continue to monitor industrial policies, especially in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors [5]