钢铁行业周报：财政取向积极

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [1]. Core Insights - The report expresses optimism about the recovery of the domestic economy in the coming year, driven by a shift towards more expansive fiscal and monetary policies [4]. - It highlights the current low profitability levels in the steel industry, indicating that the sector is at the bottom of its cycle, with potential for recovery as supply-side adjustments are anticipated [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of consumer demand and the expected positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4]. Supply Analysis - Daily average pig iron production has continued to decline, with a decrease of 0.1 million tons to 2.324 million tons [18]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 domestic steel mills remains stable at 87.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5 percentage points [18]. - The weekly production of five major steel products is reported at 8.607 million tons, reflecting a 0.1% decrease week-on-week and a 5.4% decrease year-on-year [18]. Inventory Analysis - Total steel inventory has decreased by 1.8% week-on-week, with a more pronounced decline compared to the previous week [27]. - The weekly social inventory of five major steel products stands at 7.761 million tons, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 10.6% year-on-year [27]. - Steel mill inventory has also decreased, with a total of 3.630 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% decline week-on-week and a 15.6% decline year-on-year [28]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has shown a slight improvement, with a week-on-week increase of 0.8% to 8.817 million tons [38]. - The weekly apparent consumption of rebar is reported at 2.377 million tons, up 4.4% week-on-week but down 5.6% year-on-year [38]. - The construction steel transaction volume has increased to an average of 115,000 tons per week, reflecting a 1.5% increase compared to the previous week [39]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index reported at $107.1 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.6% [47]. - The report notes an increase in Australian iron ore shipments, while Brazilian shipments have decreased significantly [47]. - Port iron ore inventory has slightly decreased, indicating a potential tightening in supply [47]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices have shown a slight upward trend, with immediate gross margins slightly declining [15]. - The profitability ratio of 247 steel mills has decreased to 48.0%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week [15].